Climate Modelling Laboratory

The next transformative technological breakthrough could come from accurate weather and climate forecasts developed from sophistical artificial neural networks.

For the very first time in history, communities will be able to effectively prepare for periods of drought, and also extreme rainfall. This will revolutionize food production, and our capacity to protect wildlife and wilderness areas.

The late Henry Ford claimed that if he had asked his first customers what they wanted, they’d have said a faster horse. Ask contemporary meteorologists about rainfall forecasting and they will tell you that it’s impossible to accurately forecast more than a few days in advance. They might also tell you about General Circulation Models (GCMs), and the increasing chaotic nature of weather -- they can't see the natural climate cycles.

At the Climate Lab we know that GCMs are old technology. Skilful monthly rainfall forecasts, more than one year in advance, are possible when using quality historical data and genetic algorithms embedded into sophisticated probabilistic neural networks.