It was apparently without even consulting James Hansen, or others at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), that Washington Post journalist Juliet Eilperin ran the prediction on October 13th, that 2005 would be the warmest year on record, click here for more detail.
It was Hansen's prediction much earlier in the year, that 2005 would be very warm, click here to download a file with notes from Hanson in response to the article.
Luckily for Eilperin, Hanson stands by his February prediction, that 2005 will be very warm.
He wrote on 3rd November with reference to the data and graphs in the attached file:
"For the first nine months of the year, 2005 is 0.02C cooler than 1998 in our land-ocean temperature index, and is tied with 2002 as the second warmest year in the period of instrumental data. The graph in the lower right shows that 1998 and 2002 were relatively cool in the last three months of the year, by more than the typical variation of the global temperature anomaly (Figure 3).
Therefore, there is a better than 50% chance that 2005 will move up in the rankings by the end of the year.
Considering also the continuing effect of the current planetary energy imbalance, we conclude that there is no reason to change the statements that we made in February and April (see above). It is now clear that 2005 surely will have been an abnormally warm year, comparable to the warmest year on record (1998), despite not being pushed, as in 1998, by a large El Nino. It is noteworthy that September 2005 was the warmest September in the 125 years of data.
Of course, it will be interesting to see how 2005 ranks compared to 1998 at the end of the year. However, for scientific purposes, the important result (already clear) will be that the trend of global temperatures toward global warming is now so steep that in just seven years the global warming trend has taken temperatures to approximately the level of the abnormally warm year of 1998. The steep global warming trend that began in the late 1970s (Figure 1) is continuing."
It is good luck, if not good science, when the February prediction is still good in November!
All of this does 'throw a spanner in the works' for John McLean and some others who have claimed it is not getting warmer - because recent years have been cooler than 1998.
........
Thanks to David Jones for sending me the Hanson notes in response to the Washington Post article.
I'm not screaming - I'm laughing - Well John -you would know as the consummate 3 point cherry picker of all time. I'm just using your approved logic in reverse - finding it "inconvenient" are we? I've said before that one year is not that much. However the old trend is up up up overall and records keep falling.
And no John - you won't argue with BoM as you know you'll come off second best with your loopy maths .. that's why you won't step up to the plate - you're essentially saying their press release is incorrect. That's brave .. hope you can back it up.
You didn't ask originally why it was warmer. If you don't like my attempt simply to present some data - well buzz off and don't ask - sort it yourself in future.
So you're on the attack - give us your considered dissertation - don't just do a quickie raid and disappear - floor us.
"suggests" ??? that's very definitive. A pers biased com perhaps? I suggest it wasn't an El Nino year - put your SOI/temp analysis up. Don't just fox around.
Several points:
The first totally obvious but apparently needs explaining. Phil, this thread is about 2005 possibly being the warmest year on record. According to your definition that ordering would seem to be "cherry picking".
No Phil, I don't have to argue with the BoM. You need to be smart enough to ask whether the claims match the data.
You can scream all you like because I did look at each state to see what April was like (although Vic and Tas are pretty insignificant when it comes to Australian averages.)
Yes Phil, April was warmer. I said that. The anomaly maps said that. I was asking "why was it warmer?" and you are saying because it was hotter.
Anyone with a few more brains may be interested to learn that the Southern Oscillation Index in February was a huge -29.1 (cf. Jan +1.8 and Mar +0.2). We have to look back to 1983 to find a lower SOI and then it was in a long period of El Nino conditions. Previous time it was lower was in 1896 (when it got as low as -42.6) but again in an El Nino period.
The SOI and monthly temp data suggests that very abrupt negative changes in monthly SOI tends to cause the next month or the one after that to be very warm. That looks like what happened in April but it's hard to be sure because I can't see a 30.9 drop in monthly SOI occuring at any other time.
Oh Mr Cherry Picker 1998 is back. Pity 2005 will blow you stats trend into the weeds. Crow for din dins again. And John quoting trends on one datum point again. Tsk tsk. Last time you at least had 3 points.
And argue with BoM it's their press release. As I've quoted in the text above. I'm sure they didn't check anything and have it all wrong. Send David an email and tell him where he's wrong.
And I didn't didn't think you were asking a question actually - just talking about the weather. The anomaly maps were simply provided to your question did anyone remember what April was like. If you don't find them helpful go dig yourself.
If anyone quotes average state or national data without looking spatially I'm gonna scream!
Posting the following for John. He has got my "Your comment was denied for questionable content" comment. It sometimes happen if you put too many fullstops in a row. I can only apologize but my provider seems unable to fix the problem.
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Thanks Phil,
You are doing what you've done in the past - ignored the issue and quoted
something without even investigating whether it is correct!
"Other changes include a marked decline in rainfall in the south-west and
parts of south-east Australia, and recent reductions in rainfall through
the eastern states." - no, distortion and distortion.
Perth's had more than their average annual rainfall already and after a dry
summer the south-west of WA had their highest autumn rain on record and not
bad winter rainfall either.
"Marked decline" in south-east (read Victoria) - hmm, wet summer, dry
autumn, 4th highest winter rain in last 10 years and it still rains 1 or 2
days a week.
Reduction in rainfall in eastern states? NSW winter rain 2nd highest since
1955, autumn dry and summer about average.
Why is autumn rain less? Probably for the reasons I listed - lack of
southerly winds.
By the way, the data shows that average rainfall for the last 10 years in
the eastern states is still above the average for the *50* years from 1900
to 1949. Compared to that 50 years the last 10 years have been an increase!
Record warm winter in southern Australia? Not so at all. BoM website says
7th warmest. Warmest autumn though (as previously discussed) so maybe
David Jones can't tell autumn from winter. By the way, the southern summer
was just 0.21 above the 1961-90 average, coolest since 2001 when it was
-1.19 (and before that +1.48, -0.55, +0.77 .. all over the place as usual.)
Do the anomaly maps show the temperature in relation to the average for the
last 10 years? Without that we don't actually know if we are still above
1961-90 average but cooling down, do we?
Now, are you going to address the points that I made or are you going to
just keep avoiding any direct response?
John - anomaly maps on BoM's site
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/tempmaps.cgi
FOr April:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/tempmaps.cgi?page=oldmap&variable=tmaxanom&period=month&area=aus&steps=6
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/tempmaps.cgi?page=oldmap&variable=tminanom&period=month&area=aus&steps=6
WARM !!! and no El Nino this year.
The Bureau has said in press release:
Australia has experienced its warmest start to a year on record (since 1950), with the January-to-October temperature averaging 1.03 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average (1961-1990). As the year nears an end, a record-breaking year is looking likely - another indicator of climate change.
"Annual mean temperatures have generally increased throughout Australia since 1910, particularly since the 1950s," says Mike Coughlan, head of the National Climate Centre within the Bureau of Meteorology. As the average temperature has risen, we have also seen an increase in the incidence of hot days and hot nights, and a reduction in the number of cold days and nights. This warming is mirrored in the oceans around Australia.
Warming is not the only sign of change we are observing in Australia's climate. Other changes include a marked decline in rainfall in the south-west and parts of south-east Australia, and recent reductions in rainfall through the eastern states. At the same time, rainfall in the arid interior and north-west has increased dramatically, in some places nearly doubling during the past 50 years.
The Age reported the Bureau as saying:
THIS year may not have seemed like a scorcher, but it is firming as the hottest year since records began.
The past decade had unusually hot years, but 2005 is the one climatologists are watching closely. The record year, 1998, had the "El Nino of the century", significantly raising temperatures. This year could exceed that benchmark without an El Nino, a warming of the Pacific Ocean that affects Australia's climate.
In a statement to be released today, the Bureau of Meteorology says the first 10 months of 2005 were the warmest equivalent period since monthly records began in 1950, and it probably would be the hottest year since annual records began in 1910. Climate scientists are picking up a similar trend globally.
The record-breaking temperatures were, the bureau said, an indicator of climate change.
"This really emphasises how pervasive global warming actually is," said David Jones, head of climate analysis at the bureau's National Climate Centre.
The Bureau of Meteorology figures show that from January to October, temperatures were 1.03 degrees above the 30-year average. That may sound slight, but small jumps in average temperatures have big impacts.
This year did not feature major heatwaves, rather the warmth crept up almost without people noticing, said the bureau's Dr Jones. This year there were:
■A record warm winter in southern Australia.
■Below-average snow falls.
■The warmest September for 125 years, globally.
■A hotter-than-usual start to spring.
■Changes in timing of seasonal activities in plants and animals.
■A "remarkable" run of warm nights, with many records set.
With all this talk here about computers did anyone actually bother to look at the temperature DATA on the BoM website?
Warmest month was April at 2.58C above 1961-90 average; next highest was May at 1.29C above. In other words April was a temperature spike. Take out April (and leave May in despite any flow-on effect) and the average over the remaining 9 months is +0.85C (cf. +1.029C when April is included). That's still high but 1998 averaged +0.959C.
What happened in April? Maybe people with good memories can tell us. Anyone???
From what I can see from BoM data, temperatures were higher across almost all the continent and skies were unusually clear (giving a high diurnal temp range). From an online archive of jetstream winds I see an almost total absence of southerly winds which would normally bring cloud to the southern half of Australia.
If my memory is correct, the El Nino was almost at an end in the north and the monthly data for Australia suggests that El Nino's often have a final temperature kick before disappearing. (If I had time I'd really like to investigate that!)
We know that south-west WA was quite cool but can anyone in other parts of the country recall anything about April conditions?
Rog - Sure they will about as much as Channel 7.
Actually that would have to be the "supposedly" coldest winter daily maximum - same thermometers