Many academics genuinely believe that promoting anxiety and fear about a problem is a form of valium public service, according to Frank Furedi, a professor of sociology at Kent University, writing in The Times Higher Education Supplement last month.
The articles includes the comment:
The defence of the "good lie" or the "greater truth" is invoked when inflated stories are peddled to raise awareness of an issue. ...
Appeals to a "greater truth" are prominent in debates about the environment. It is claimed that problems such as global warming are so important that a campaign of fear is justified. Stephen Schneider, a climatologist at Stanford University, justified the distortion of evidence in the following terms: "Because we are not just scientists but human beings... as well... we need to capture the public imagination." He added that "we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified statements and make little mention of any doubts that we have". With such attitudes widely circulated, is it any wonder that Hurricane Katrina is widely perceived as punishment for humanity's environmental sins? That advocacy research translates so well into the language of divine retribution indicates how the crusading spirit can destroy the integrity of academic enterprise.
Of course academics are entitled to adopt a partisan role. They also have a right to raise concerns about the problems that capture their imagination.
We are also normal human beings who can get carried away with the findings of our research. Academic passion and commitment make a significant contribution to society. But however noble the ideals that motivate it, the promotion of fear displaces the quest for the truth. Instead of clarifying issues it contributes to a dishonest polarisation of attitudes that invariably closes down discussion. Fear entrepreneurship on campuses, like elsewhere, serves only the interest of intolerance and prejudice.
I reckon the biggest lie from the global warming alarmists is that it is going to get drier as it gets warmer.
On 27th May last year ABC Radio's World Today had a feature titled 'Changing conditions means more efficient water use needed: expert' in which Peter Cullen suggested that as a consequence of climate change there will be more droughts and that agriculture will need to re-adjust. A few months later Tim Flannery was on ABC TV's 7.30 Report (23rd June 2004) telling us that Australia was going to be affected by climate change sooner and harder than anywhere else on the planet and that Perth may end up a 'ghost metropolis' from lack of rain.
That was before the drought broke. I had a look at dam levels in Perth this morning and they keep rising, click here.
Isn't it true that as it gets warmer it is, on average, going to get wetter? That's what Australia's climatologists tell us (Australasian Science, June 2004). That's why there is more snow falling on Greenland. Furthermore, a paper by Roderick and Farquhar in the International Journal of Climatology (Vol 24, Issue 9, 2004) indicates that contrary to expectations, measurements of pan evaporation show decreases over the last 30 years in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere and also across Australia.
There seems a great propensity to exaggerate water issues and suggest that there is everywhere a shortage.
Media headlines in Queensland's south east over the last week have focused on Brisbane Lord Mayor's anger at nearby Gold Coast and Redlands decisions to reduce water restrictions and allow watering of gardens from 4pm rather than sticking with a 7pm to 7am regime. Redlands have a near full dam and completely independent water supply, yet Brisbane's Lord Mayor wants everyone to suffer the restrictions. It doesn't make sense to me.
I was stunned to see over 450mm of rainfall fall in the Mangrove Mountain area in the NSW Central Coast and yet the Mangrove Creek Dam went up by a lousy 6%. 400mm of rain is a phenomenal amount in that area and I expected the dam level to go up by 5 to 10 times 6%.
In 1997 when the main Sydney Warragamba dam catchment received a fall like that it went from 55% to oveflowing. And Warragamba's capacity is three times the size of Mangrove Creek dam. So just what is the problem ?? (1) Overly small or narrow catchment ? (2)Poor hydrography (loss of rainwater through groundwater flows)(3)Something else ?
It just isn't making sense.
G'day
Humans do seem to like a scarey story and the powers that be find it much easier to introduce changes when we are scared. Do yourselves a favour and google search "the great global warming swindle" you'll find a google video of a UK documentary. Very very eye opening.
It goes for around an hour
enjoy
Rod
PS this is not to say that we have no problems, just that we should use facts not fabrications to fix them
This debate's a bit old now, but that last comment was really, really daft. Evaporation only cools things down while it moves the heat elsewhere - in case you hadn't noticed there is no elsewhere to take it (only this one old Earth here).
Global warming means that it is more difficult for heat to leave the planet due to 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere. The heat gets here as light, and is converted to heat when it hits stuff. The amount of light hitting Earth is the same, heat is leaving more slowly, therefore the Earth is warming up. When water heats up it expands, so the ocean level WILL rise over several decades, all other things being equal.
The Earth's weather is due to the uneven temperature distribution from equator to poles, plus a little coriolis. More heat means more uneven temperature, means more weather. Of all kinds.
Except that there are so many things we don't understand about the weather/climate: effect of rainfall on ocean circulation, effect of dust on rainfall, effect of heat on dust production, effect of temperature on change of vegetation, effect of change of vegetation on conversion of light to heat, effect of change of vegetation on rate of evaporation, effect of change of vegetation on greenhouse gas levels, effect of change of vegetation on production of dust, etc, etc, etc. This is not a simple system.
Global warming could lead to a new ice age, global warming could lead to a hotter, wetter world, global warming could lead to a hotter drier world - we don't know yet.
Global warming WILL lead to massive change.
What happens if China dries up - you think that 1.5 billion Chinese are just going to sit there and starve? Or Indians? Or the U.S., or Russia, or the Arabian states, or Africans? If we are not very, very lucky (I discount the possibility of politicians actually doing anything until it's gone bad) then it'll get very nasty indeed.
I think climate change is a great way for governments to collect more taxes and persuade us all that Nuclear Power is the only way to go.
Lets face it guys GLOBAL WARMING IS BIG BUSINESS.
How can they justify that global warming will create higher seas? Higher temperatures will cause higher rainfall in regions that never had rain before...Wont higher rainfalls cool the surface temperature? If not what about the ice caps?? Have you ever put a block of ice in a class of water...check the difference when it has melted...Now tell me....higher temperatures...higher rainfall....higher evaporation....Cooler surface temperatures??? any takers...
Australia as a whole is getting wetter (as BoM web site time series show). This is mainly due to increases in summer rainfall over much of the western half of the continent. However, south-west Western Australia suffered a decline in winter (and annual) rainfall around 1970 from which it has not recovered. Elsewhere, although there are medium term drying trends particulalrly over the most populous regions there is, as yet, no evidence that they are statistically significant (i.e. unusual in a historical context). This may alter if the dry conditions persist.
Smith, I.N. (2004) Trends in Australian rainfall - are they unusual? Australian Meteorological Magazine, 53(3), 163-173.
Steve copmments on warmer means more evaporation, NO not necessiarly, an all too common fallacy. You cannot necessiarly say much from average temperature alone. Evaporation depends on solar radiation, dryness of the atmosphere (vapour pressure deficit) and wind. Warming largely at night or increasing humidity, decreasing wind or radiation then evaporation might decrease and seems to be doing so globally.
Direct warming effects and changes in circulation patterns could shift evaporation all over the place at a regional scale.
Decreasing diurnal temperature range a very common observation these days.
Sounds reasonable Phil, you could get a job as don Gueverra, the face of peace that sold a million green T-shirts.
Nah - its rampant water wastage by unnecessary industries like nurseries that are the cause of the problem. And ruining our bushland by spreading ornamental weed pests.
Shower with a friend, geta rain water tank back in, and stop hosing the damn driveway. And bring back the boom gate between Qld and NSW - if you don't have 3 generations buried here you're not allowed in (Tassies and WA's excepted). No more rampant growth of non-contributors driving up the water consumption and ruining the transport and health system too. It's not Pete's fault - too many southerners and J Patel was a foreigner anyway. So that's what you get.
And besides we've dammed almost everything that can hold water by now anyway.
Once we have sealed the border we can implement 100% death taxes on all assets to redistribute the income fairly and limit all salaries to no more than $40,000 per annum which should limit consumption of our valuable natural resources. And ban all forms of negative gearing. We should immediately round up and destroy all cats and dogs. Ban non-native ornamental plants. We can then introduce a carbon tax and a statewide enviromental levy to return the place to pre-European status. This is what we are planning to do after we win power at the next election. Will you join us?
Oh - and bring back Joh's Special Branch so we can keep files on any known right wing industry advocates and anyone with strange ideas we don't agree with - like Louis. Obviously a potential risk and needs to be monitored closely.
Doesnt matter how you want to cut and dice it Phil, local govt has failed to provide sufficient resources for a growing population - another nail in the coffin of The Socialist State.