It was all over local radio here in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, this morning ... that it was the coldest May morning ever, with temperatures down to -2C. That's cold for subtropical Brisbane.
As I sat shivering in my little wooden house with no central heating or insulation, I was trying to reconcile this one off measurement and the colour of my hands, with new information on the Bureau of Meterology (BOM) website that says global warming is real, is here now, and that on average its a whole degree warmer in Australia.
Indeed, according to the Bureau:
"Australia and the globe are experiencing rapid climate change. Since the middle of the 20th century, Australian temperatures have, on average, risen by about 1°C with an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and a decrease in the numbers of frosts and cold days."
But what is perhaps more interesting than this cold May morning in this world of global warming, is that most of the rest of the world has on average, according to NASA, only warmed by 0.6C over the last 30 years or so. I thought the IPCC models said that it was going to get warmer on average in the northern hemisphere before it got warmer down here?
I've just found that comment from Gavin at an earlier thread which I interpreted, along with figure 18, to mean it should, in general, not warm as much here in Australia, as it will in the rest of the world, at least not for the moment:
"The basic mistake is to assume that hemispheric temperatures follow hemispheric forcings proportionately. This is incorrect. The biggest factor is the amount of oceans and the effective mixing depths in the southern oceans. This gives a much larger effective heat capacity in the south and so in any transient case the warming is always delayed in the south. This is actually exactly what climate models show. See http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/notyet/2005_submitted_Hansen_etal_1.pdf
(fig 18 for instance)."
In summary, according to the models from our best scientists it is going to get warmer on average in the northern hemisphere before it gets warmer in the southern hemisphere, but according to the Australian Bureau of Meterology (BOM) its a whole degree on average warmer here in Australia in the southern hemisphere when, on average, its only 0.6C warmer over the whole world.
And I just wish it would warm up a bit, today, here in Brisbane.
Coby
"not gov't" ?
Who mentioned government?
So whose logical skills have to be questioned.
No Louis, not gov't, sorry. Seems your skill at ad hom is on a par with your logic skills.
Gareth,
which have been included in the GCM's ?
Louis wrote: "3 days ago the climate was warm and somewhat barmy"
Global warming may well make the weather go barmy, but what made your temperature drop was probably a cold front.
Coby,
I read from your previous posts that you are another guvmint source. Like Phil Done.
You will be treated in a like manner.
Coby,
Climate is, under existing definitions, as the average over 30 years.
Except no one has explicitly defined climate in terms of some measurement.
Principally because no one can.
That is YOUR problem.
Rember a cold snap is just a good demonstrtion that the laws of physics are working well. Cold during a warming phase could originate from 2 causes that I know of. (1) dry air low in water vapour as was the case in Brisbane allows rapid escape of long wave infra red and maximum rate of cooling at night. (2) circulation patterns moving air from colder regions.
If we are getting unusual amounts of either dry or cold air then this may indicate changes in global circulation paterns impacting on regional climates, indeed ozone hole effects are believed to be causing significant changes in shouthern hemisphere circulation paterns. Regional trends can be different to global or continental trends and could be expected as part of climate change.
Hi Louis,
Yes, climate is a summary of weather and yes 30 years is a common benchmark. So if you know this, why in the world do you expect a climate model to tell you why it got cold so suddenly at your house? One day is .009% of the time period required by the definition you have supplied.
Coby,
Climate is defined as weather summarised over a 30 year period.
I am puzzled as to why Jennifer is perplexed by all of this. The Southern Hemisphere is a big place and Australia is just a small part of it. If I remember correctly, Australia is only about 3-4% of the world's landmass.
Presumably Jennifer is also aware that most of the globe, and indeed the southern hemisphere, is ocean and that there is an anticipated and observed differential in ocean vis-a-vis land mass warming.