As 2006 draws to a close it is interesting to ponder the big issues and events from the past year.
Along with the drought, bushfires, extinction of the baiji, 2006 will perhaps be remembered as the year of climate change hysteria.
I think the movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ in which failed US Presidential hopeful Al Gore described carbon dioxide as the enemy, and then constructing a story as simplistic, horrific, technically flawed* and politically naïve as that CIA dossier on those weapons of mass destruction, was a significant contributor to the hysteria.
Indeed, while support for the notion that carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is the cause of all climate catastrophe was building, that movie more than anything else, seemed to galvanize support for the theory.
In the movie, Al Gore presented hurricane Katrina as an example of how global warming from the burning of fossil fuels has resulted in an increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes. Disturbing images of New Orleans after Katrina were shown with comment that this is “something new for America” and “how in God’s name could this happen here in the US” and the scientists warned us.
In the movie Al Gore was also big on the idea that all reputable scientists agree. That there is an overwhelming consensus on this and other climate change issues.
Yet most cyclone specialists, including Chris Landsea, have repeatedly stated that there is no evidence for or against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record. The cyclone record includes typhoons and hurricanes.
But Al Gore ignored this inconvenient truth, and the popular press have maintained the deception.
Furthermore, there is no general trend of increasing cyclone number or intensity.
As the year comes to an end it is depressing that the popular press, so enamored with the idea of a man-made global warming climate catastrophe, continue to ignore the experts and the data.
Recently the following ‘Consensus Statements’ on tropical cyclones and climate change was developed, discussed and endorsed at the World Meteorological Organization's International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones**, but I didn’t read or hear about it on 'my ABC'.
The experts concluded that the recent increase in impacts from tropical cyclones (including hurricanes) has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.
Consensus Statements
1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.
2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.
3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.
4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.
5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.
6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.
7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.
8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.
9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.
10. If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.
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* Technical flaws in the movie are documented in 'A Skeptic's Guide to An Inconvenient Truth' by Marlo Lewis at
http://www.cei.org/gencon/030,05478.cfm.
Also I’ve written bits and pieces on ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ with links at my website here: https://climatelab.com.au/faq.php?id=15&category=18 .
** The Workshop was held in San Jose, Costa Rica, in November 2006. It was invitation-only bringing together 125 researchers and practitioners from 34 countries in the field of tropical cyclone forecasting.
*** Sections underlined where added at 8.30am on 19th following comment from Luke.
woah! thats really long!!
Hi Sid,
Well, from my own experience , we in Scandinavia had a mild winter until the end of January until the hell( cold hell!!!) broke out. Coldest spring in decades.....and WWF blamed the cold on AGW.
It's very confusing to live in Scandinavia...
But re sea surface temperature in the North Sea , they have measured the warmest surface temperature since 1974 when they begun the work.
Ann, The 'Global Warming' fraternity were very quiet last northern winter, when large areas of Europe and Asia experienced extremely cold conditions, including many snowfall records, low temp records, and alarming number of people dying.
Bet the birds fled south then!
Unless I didn't hear it, were these alarmists then voicing concerns about global cooling? Or were they still blaming it on AGW?
You're playing with words Paul and making this debate political instead of scientific.
Some scientists say there IS evidence of a link with greenhouse. Some don't. There is not a consensus. There are clearly divisions in this area of science. And this field is far from static.
The issue now seems to be whether the data are good enough. Holland et al are not backing down on the latest paper despite criticism by Landsea - as all these guys are serious scientists - I think we'll have to wait.
Joe/Jill public need to know there is no firm consensus as yet. But instead of worrying whether there is or is not - the growth of populations in cyclone prone areas is a major concern for those who believe in AGW & hurricanes and also those who don't.
If there is no established link, then who are the contrarians?
Yes Paul - all very interesting,wise and relevant to current management issues but we're debating climate change and hurricanes. The debate is escalating and not conceded despite what consensus has signed what. This is a science based debate vis a vis the usual contrarian nonsense.
Al Gore didn't get anything right.
Hurricane/cyclone records are short, climate change is long
Landsea, Holland, Curry, Elsner etc have signed here:
July 25th 2006
As the Atlantic hurricane season gets underway, the possible influence of climate change on hurricane activity is receiving renewed attention. While the debate on this issue is of considerable scientific and societal interest and concern, it should in no event detract from the main hurricane problem facing the United States: the ever-growing concentration of population and wealth in vulnerable coastal regions. These demographic trends are setting us up for rapidly increasing human and economic losses from hurricane disasters, especially in this era of heightened activity. Scores of scientists and engineers had warned of the threat to New Orleans long before climate change was seriously considered, and a Katrina-like storm or worse was (and is) inevitable even in a stable climate.
Rapidly escalating hurricane damage in recent decades owes much to government policies that serve to subsidize risk. State regulation of insurance is captive to political pressures that hold down premiums in risky coastal areas at the expense of higher premiums in less risky places. Federal flood insurance programs likewise undercharge property owners in vulnerable areas. Federal disaster policies, while providing obvious humanitarian benefits, also serve to promote risky behavior in the long run.
We are optimistic that continued research will eventually resolve much of the current controversy over the effect of climate change on hurricanes. But the more urgent problem of our lemming-like march to the sea requires immediate and sustained attention. We call upon leaders of government and industry to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of building practices, and insurance, land use, and disaster relief policies that currently serve to promote an ever-increasing vulnerability to hurricanes.
Kerry Emanuel
Richard Anthes
Judith Curry
James Elsner
Greg Holland
Phil Klotzbach
Tom Knutson
Chris Landsea
Max Mayfield
Peter Webster