More Reading from Marc Morano (Part 4)

Chris - it's inevitable in any volunteer based network that there will be some dud sites.

The question is how many are duds - out of how many total !

A few extreme photos can create any amount of bad publicity. Implication - they're all that bad ??

Nevertheless anything that's really poor in terms of site standards should definitely be eliminated. It's also encumbent on Anthony Watts to provide a list of duds to NOAA. He may well be.

But the real issue is what screening is done, how many of these duds are there, and what difference do they make to the computed result. 1%, 10%, 50%, 100% ??

Of course we can compare to other evidence like boreholes, glacier melt, species behaviour, sea surface temperatures; and decide whether the results are broadly consistent.

Mathematical analyses can also help with outlier detection.

If find it interesting that those who want to discredit the surface temperature network also want to use the the same network to discuss 1940s to 1970s cooling dips and supposed cooling since 1998. Also to pick cold record events - Sid's favourite taunt - why bother if you don't trust the data.

Can't have it both ways. So which is it?

And it's not only UHI effects to be concerned about - really good stations should also have calibration visits.

Clearly we could do better. And we should do better. If people are not prepared to appropriately site, maintain and record meteorological data they should not bother and their data marked unfit for scientific use.

I wonder if the photographers are doing this?

"Photographical Documentation Checklist for USCRN Site
___________________________________________________________
Photos taken By: _____________________
Photos should be made when there is good visibility at 100 meters. On clear days, the pictures should be taken as close to noon as possible. File names should include the compass direction where appropriate. Archive file format is jpg. Photos MUST be taken in order listed below so they will properly be labeled and created.

Prior to installation: Date: ___________
1) One Ipix from the center of the tower site denoting objects within 100 meters and their heights. The finished Ipix should have an aligned compass in the center label area with 4 compass points labeled. The 186-degree image shots will be part of the official archive.
Start with NORTH
End with SOUTH
2) Sixteen overlapping annotated still photos from the center of the tower site taken every 22.5
degrees (the sixteen major compass points) denoting objects within 100 meters and their heights.
Start with N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW, SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW End with
NNW
After installation: Date: ___________
1) Four Ipix taken at ten meters from the tower fence at the four points of the compass. Each Ipix
should have an aligned compass in the center label area. The 186-degree image shots will be part
of the official archive. If the annual site visit uncovers significant change, these shots are to be
retaken.
Photo 1: North: start with S, end with N
Photo 2: East: start with W, end with E
Photo 3: South: start with N, end with S
Photo 4: West: start with E, end with W
2) From a position four meters east of the tower and starting at due north, nine still photos taken
every 22.5 degrees clockwise to due south denoting objects within 100 meters and their heights.
Stitch photos into a single 180-degree image. To be retaken at each annual site visit and photos
placed in the archive.
Start with N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE, SSE,
End with S
3) From a position four meters west of the tower and starting at due south, nine still photos taken
every 22.5 degrees clockwise to due north denoting objects within 100 meters and their heights.
Stitch photos into a single 180-degree image. To be retaken at each annual site visit and photos
placed in the archive.
Start with S, SSW, SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW
End with N
Form Date: August 17, 2004
4) From a position fifty meters south of the tower sixteen still photos taken every 22.5 degrees at the
major compass points.
Start with N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW, SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW End
with NNW
5) From a position fifty meters north of the tower sixteen still photos taken every 22.5 degrees at the major compass points.
Start with N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW, SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW End
with NNW
6) From a position four meters north of the tower take a photo of the ground below the instruments
with the instruments at top of the frame. Repeat this from positions four meters east, west and
south of the tower.
7) At least four general site views that represents the most informative overall perspective. At least
one photo should have the sun at the photographer's back, a margin of sky showing above the tower, and, if possible, the precip gauge in the background. It will be placed in the official archive as a “cover” shot for the station."

This is the standard of documentation required for the reference network that is already 'auditing' the other stations. Are the jokers running around the USA going to do a survey to this standard?

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/uscrn/documentation/program/USCRN%20Installation%20Guide.pdf
page 46

Looks like a bad week for solar-philes ! INCOMING.

No solar hiding place for greenhouse sceptics.

http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2007/07/no_solar_hiding_place_for_gree.php

and

http://blog.petedecarlo.com/?p=41 says

Solar activity peaked between 1985 and 1987. Since then, trends in solar irradiance, sunspot number and cosmic-ray intensity have all been in the opposite direction to that required to explain global warming.

A second quote, puts it into a little more perspective

[Solar effects] might have acted to cool the climate in recent decades, but been overwhelmed. If so, the climate could be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than is generally thought, and future temperature increases might be greater than expected if a countervailing solar effect comes to an end.

chrisl - "Ender : I thought that a climate nerd* like yourself would be all over this project.
Of course it won't make any difference: Real climate scientists use computer models."

Yes I would be if they were volunteering to improve the network. I fail to see how a photograph of a measurement site is related to to accuracy of the data from that site. Real climate scientists use a variety of tools one of which is computer modelling. As scientists they are used to working with imperfect data as no scientist in any branch of science has perfect data to work with.

BTW I left a couple of words out of my last post.

"it is a standard part of science where corporate interests or defense issues"

Should read

"it is a standard part of science EXCEPT where corporate interests or defense issues"

and

"things to do that spoon feed him things"

should be

"things to do than spoon feed him things"

chrisl - "Ender You are demanding that Steve McIntyre "share the data" That is basically what his whole blog is all about! He wants the other side to share their data.(The "lost" data)"

All scientists share their data, it is a standard part of science where corporate interests or defense issues get in the way of normal publication. Corporate issues are most prevalent in drug type research where billions are hanging on some discoveries. At all times the data that McIntyre claims was not shared was always available in public places or upon request. What was not available were detailed instructions for amateur scientists that did not know what to do with the data and needed spoon feeding. Also he annoyed and harrassed climate scientists with better things to do that spoon feed him things that they assumed people who wanted the data were competent to analyse.

"I suggest you check out Anthony Watts' excellent blog where he is attempting (with volunteers) to photograph all 1200 or so temperature"

I have seen it and I just want to ask are they going to repaint all the stations blue after they photograph them. They may as well for all the good that this will do. Furthermore are they volunteering to man these stations and take the load off the team of largely volunteer workers that maintain the network? That would be far more productive than taking happy snaps for people to gloat over.