A new paper has been published in Science, 3rd January, that uses the words 'natural variability,' the abstract copied below is self explanatory:
The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat Content Change in the North Atlantic
M. Susan Lozier 1, Susan Leadbetter 2, Richard G. Williams 2, Vassil Roussenov 2, Mark S. C. Reed 1, Nathan J. Moore 3
1 Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
2 Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Liverpool University, Liverpool, L69 3GP U.K.
3 Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA; Current affiliation: Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823 USA.
Abstract:
The total heat gained by the North Atlantic Ocean over the past fifty years is equivalent to a basin-wide increase in the flux of heat across the ocean surface of 0.4 ±0.05 Wm-2. We show, however, that this basin has not warmed uniformly: though the tropics and subtropics have warmed, the subpolar ocean has cooled. These regional differences require local surface heat flux changes (±4 Wm-2) much larger than the basin-wide average. Model investigations show that these regional differences can be explained by large-scale, decadal variability in wind and buoyancy forcing, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Whether the overall heat gain is due to anthropogenic warming is difficult to confirm, since strong natural variability in this ocean basin is potentially masking such input at the present time.
mcafee vs avast
microsoft spyware remover
"In 'Taken By Storm,' Essex and McKitrick offer a scientifically sound argument that is against the mainstream. Let's open up a debate and see who is willing to participate."
- Professor Anastasios Tsonis,
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Tsonis accounted for all the temperature/climate shifts in the 20th century, and made predictions for future warming and cooling on the basis of a new dynamical mechanism. I don't think he suggested that CO2 was driving the mechanism. How much man-made CO2 was in the atmosphere for the climate shifts of 1913 and 1942?
If we eventually manage to objectively work out the magnitude of AGW against the background of natural variability, we can add that in as well.
I'll repeat the last line of the abstract for the NAO paper we are discussing on this thread for the benefit of SJT:
"Whether the overall heat gain is due to anthropogenic warming is difficult to confirm, since strong natural variability in this ocean basin is potentially masking such input at the present time."
Tsonis believes AGW is happening, he was investigating the existing climate systems that overlay it.
The Tsonis et al 'climate shifts' paper gets my vote as the most interesting paper of 2007:
http://www.volny.cz/lumidek/tsonis-grl.pdf
the collective behavior of known climate cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation were investigated.
This item by D'Aleo is interesting in terms of the relationsip between PDO/AMO cycles and global temperatures. This is likely to be a big piece of the puzzle in terms of figuring out what really drives climate change. The IPCC just shrugs its shoulders on this since it doesn't support the AGW agenda.
http://icecap.us/docs/change/OceanMultidecadalCyclesTemps.pdf
"Mark, I know the link to the other thread had your references but is there any way you can add them to your site?"
Done my friend!:
http://www.geocities.com/mcmgk
As to the upwelling, I haven't got too much information on that - just the one bit of information in terms of the S. American coast. The big question is whether such changes are symmetric or asymmetric.
Mark, I know the link to the other thread had your references but is there any way you can add them to your site?
Very interesting point about the deep upwelling too. Is there more info? Why not a new post?
Paul, we must take our pleasures as they come.
Looks as though I was too harsh in saying that I would delete references to RealClimate. I don't want to miss out on recent examples of RC shooting itself in the foot.