ANOTHER year, and another announcement from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology that it is getting hotter. Indeed on January 3, 2014, David Jones, Manager of Climate Monitoring and Predictions at the Bureau, explained in a radio interview that: “We know every place across Australia is getting hotter, and very similarly almost every place on this planet. So, you know, we know it is getting hotter and we know it will continue to get hotter. It’s a reality, and something we will be living with for the rest of this century.”
I’m not sure that its going to continue to get hotter, but last year was hot.
According to Dr Jones, the hottest place in 2013 was Moomba in South Australia where a temperature of 49.6°C was recorded in January. What Dr Jones didn’t explain, however, is that temperatures have only been recorded at Moomba since 1995. So we don’t actually know how hot it was at Moomba during the federation drought or in 1939.
I’ve been following trends at Bathurst where temperatures have been recorded at the jail since 1858 and at the agricultural college since 1908. In October, after plotting days when maximum temperatures exceeded 35 degree Celsius, I indicated that there has been no increase in hot days at Bathurst, http://www.mythandthemurray.org/no-increase-in-hot-days-at-bathurst-or-the-misguided-politics-of-attributing-bushfires-to-global-warming/ .
But after plotting the really hot days through until the end of 2013, I’m happy to concede that it’s virtually as hot now as it was back in 1939, Chart 1. On 11th January 1939 temperatures climbed to 40.7 degrees at the Bathurst agricultural station. In January last year it reached 40.2 degrees. Furthermore, when averages maximum temperatures are combined for each year, there appears to be a slight warming trend, Chart 2.
Unfortunately, the average for the year 1939 is not shown in Chart 2 as maximum daily temperatures are not available in the digitized record for May through to September of that year for this site. The hottest year at the Bathurst agricultural college according to this statistic (whereby maximum daily temperatures are averaged for the year) was 2006 with an annual average maximum daily temperature of 22.2 degrees compared to an average maximum for 2013 of 21.8 degrees.
If we go further north to western Queensland and consider the long temperature trend for Charleville, then last year appears to be a record hot year, Chart 3. All years are shown from 1910 based on my averaging of the available daily maximum values from the Bureau’s homogenized ACORN* data set to the end of 2012. I’ve relied on the raw daily values for 2013. I’ve made no adjustments for missing values in this record and have not compared the raw data to the end of 2012 with the ACORN-SAT adjusted data.*
When individual hot days are plotted for Charleville, the hottest day at 46.3 degree Celsius shows as 4th January 1973, Chart 4. This is closely followed by 46.0 degrees recorded just last year on 29th December 2013. And just a few days ago, on 3rd January 2014, it was 46.1 degrees at Charleville.
The hotter than average conditions in Australia for 2013 show up in the satellite record as published by the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Chart 5. According to this record, globally 2013 was the fourth warmest year since measurements began in 1978, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/03/global-temperature-report-december-2013/ .
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ACORN-SAT is the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature. Data can be downloaded here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/ .
Ken Stewart, John Sayers, Jo Nova and others have shown up many issues with this database, for example, http://joannenova.com.au/2012/06/threat-of-anao-audit-means-australias-bom-throws-out-temperature-set-starts-again-gets-same-results/ . It nevertheless remains a useful source of information. For the Bathurst agricultural station the long unadjusted data set (recently purchased by me from the Bureau) accords well with the publically available ACORN dataset. I have no particular opinion on the reliability of the Charleville ACORN data as I do not have access to the unadjusted Charleville data before 1948.
Debbie - I don't think we really have anything more that we can productively discuss. So the very best for your ongoing farming experience and prosperity, and good luck with your battles against an increasingly hardening and depressed bureaucracy.
The serious questions and specific requests have been asked and ignored in favour of what those in authority have decided we SHOULD have asked and SHOULD have specifically requested.
I note you invoke the same mindset when you say SOME SHOULD DO the exact opposite.
Which SOME Luke and what exact opposite SHOULD they do?
You are also ignoring the fact that BoM are PRETENDING their skill re regional seasonal forecasting is efficacious. . .it isn't.
They are however AMAZING at constructing national averages/means/medians in pretty colorful graphs.
You also conveniently ignore that 20% probability of 'drier than average' does NOT mean 20% probability of seasonal DROUGHT!
If you think that's the same thing. . . then you speak in a different language. . .which the paying customers do not understand. . . who would be the patently dense party in that case?. . . IMHO. . .that is a clear example of very poor communication and an almost total disregard of the people you are claiming you have 'sympathy' for and who are the 'public' that is in the job title 'PUBLIC SERVICE'.
The particular demographic we are discussing have well tuned BS meters. . .and are rather intolerant of continual, counter-productive BS.
They are neither dense about environmental/climate/weather matters nor unappreciative of genuine good service.
And BTW. . Your OPINION of me (personally) means absolutely NOTHING in terms of the discussion because:
a) You don't know me
b) I don't know you. . . not even your real name or occupation and
c) It is irrelevant to the issues we are discussing.
If you base your conclusions on OPINIONS formed by encounters at blogs. . . that reveals more about YOU than anything else.
Jen says you have a good heart. . .but if I based my conclusions about you on the personal insults you direct at me. . . I could easily disagree with Jen.
However. . . she does know you. . .and I don't.
"People out here in the REAL environment/climate/weather. . .need to get off it and get on with it . . .and be encouraged to do so."
For some of course that's perhaps the exact opposite of what they should do.
So then - why are you so utterly dense on basic forecast probability stuff?
Never a serious question? No serious requests for any specific application?
And no grasp of even fundamental trivial concepts. But PLENTY of slags.
"cruel blow" - "struggling" - maybe like the small business guy down the street then - time to sell up.
Am I telling you or anyone what to do in your business?
I think Debs you're just another whinger. And it comes down to chewing arms off. Pity your local staff.
Luke,
It is not reluctance to receive information.
Your information is mostly just a case of stating the bleeding obvious!
Farming /agriculture is indeed a gamble with the weather and NO ONE (especially if they are in the more marginal areas) expects to get 10 good years out of 10. . .if they do. . .they are in the wrong game. . .and they won't last very long.
Even 2 good years in a row that correspond with good commodity prices is an absolute bonus!
What makes you presume that people who run their own businesses don't already know and don't already do most of what you are lecturing about? Quite clearly you are 'lecturing' about something which you only have an 'academic' or 'theoretical' interest in. . .and little to zero practical experience.
When the weather goes extreme or exceptional (as in a severe, multi year drought or a massive flood event). . .that is a different matter.
The last drought was a particularly long and difficult one and it started to take even good operators down as they were forced to mine their equity and also sell off their assets. That was followed by massive flooding. . .not particularly unheard of. . .It wasn't something totally out of the ordinary or attributable to anything other than the chaos that is our Australian climate. . .but nonetheless a very cruel blow to people who were already struggling.
Many are still dragging through the losses that they incurred during that time and they are particularly vulnerable to further poor seasonal weather (although they're not SURPRISED by it) a fall in commodity prices, a high Australian dollar, an upward movement in interest rates & etc. . . but what is really ticking them off is that 'superior lecturing', monopolistic and almost larcenous attitude from bureaucrats/academics, discussing risk profile when they're clearly 100% risk averse themselves (eg they expect to be paid even when they don't deliver anything at all) and a lack of long term vision/planning on the part of many 'authorities' amongst our NRM bureaucracies & academic/political institutions
There's lots and lots of talk. . .usually in the form of 'fait accompli' presentations (which they argue is consulting). . .but no walk.
People out here in the REAL environment/climate/weather. . .need to get off it and get on with it . . .and be encouraged to do so.