THE Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a media release last night (19thFebruary) with the headline “Tropical Cyclone Marcia to reach Category 5 system at landfall”. This morning there was extensive media reporting of Marcia having reached landfall as a Category 5.
But where is the evidence? And who is asking for it? Like the Bureau, the Australian media seem intent on hyping the event, rather than providing any critical or dispassionate assessment.
The first technical bulletin for Marcia, issued at 4pm today states that, “surface observations have not captured the highest winds,” and acknowledges that the minimum pressure so far recorded has been 975 hPa inside the eye wall at 1.30 pm at Rockhampton.
In fact, this central pressure only qualifies Marcia as a Category 2. As one would expect of a category 2, both Rockhampton and Yeppoon have sustained relatively minor house damage and significant damage to trees.
Just before the cyclone made landfall it passed over Middle Percy Island, to the north of Rockhampton, and the lowest central pressure recorded for the system then was 971.6 hPa at 3.39 am this morning. A wind gust of 208 km/hr was recorded at 4.30 am, which suggests Marcia was almost a Category 3 at this time, even though its central pressure was never recorded as below 970 hPa. The central pressure of a cyclone needs to be somewhere in the 970 to 955 hPa range to be a Category 3.
This would suggest that even as Marcia approached the Queensland coastline it was never more than a Category 2.
Indeed the raw observational data available at the Bureau’s website would suggest that Cyclone Marcia made landfall just south of Middle Percy Island as a Category 2 approaching a Category 3, but had already weakened to a very ordinary Category 2 approaching Category 1 by the time it reached the city of Rockhampton.
This evidence, however, contradicts the track map at the Bureau’s website, and also the extensive media suggesting that Cyclone Marcia made landfall as a Category 5, and was still a Category 3 system when it reached Rockhampton.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been hyping the possibility of a devastating cyclone hitting the Queensland coastline all year. It forecast that Marcia would hit as a Category 5 cyclone, but where is the evidence?
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Thanks to everyone who has emailed me today with best wishes, assuming I was in Yeppoon when Marcia hit. Our house there is still standing, with some trees down in the front yard. I was in Brisbane last night, and am now in Noosa.
Obviously there is not much more to say on this subject! Will leave this to those who think they know everybody and know it all, however there is one last thing I will add, for those who think they have lived through a Cat 4, Cat 5 or even high end Cat 3 are going to be in for an awfull shock when they actually do.
Perception is a marvellous thing and with time reality will be distorted even further. Lets hope they never endure a Cat 4+ direct impact in this area as they honestly won't know what hit them.
Hopefully for some this will have been a wake up call, to take some preventative action, no point in living in your dream environment if that same environment destroys you due to their obsession within their own environment.
As for what historical and local knowledge I have? Well obviously it really doesn't matter, most have already made their owns minds up. Lets hope they never actually have to deal with a Cat 3+/4/5 in this area, the end result would be horrendous compared to the slap on the wrist from Marcia.
Indeed Matt, I haven't seen damage like this in Byfield previously. Neither have the residents of Byfield that I have spoken to and helped clean up. None of them have seen damage anywhere near as bad as this. People that have lived there for fifty years. People whose families have been there for generations.
Are these people to be ignored? Is their historical background irrelevant? Is their collective knowledge of the region meaningless?
How about the guy that had to go 3km from his house to his front gate on foot and was flat out walking 10m without having to climb over piles of broken trees? The devastation of rainforest habitats along Water Park Creek?
I don't know what your historical knowledge of these areas is Matt but it pales into insignificance in comparison to the collective knowledge of the people I have spoken to and helped since Marcia devistated their homes and livelihoods.
Samuel Hill was definately on line as the these observations were much more important in the Middle Percy for example. Samuel Hill was indicating basically what we were in for.
Ellen, So if Samuel was out of action before the cyclone hit it then how come there is wind data for 9am (SW @76km/h) and 3pm (NW @ 26km/h) yet absolutely no record of Max wind gusts?? strange hey? Samuel Hill was definately working during (I was watching it) and well after the cyclone past, at least until 3pm 20/2 and was probably still working fine after the power failed and Telstra's mobile network failed but there is absolutely no reason for Samuel to not have recorded and uploaded Max wind gusts.
Oh and Bigredman, you sound like someone with very little historical background re any of the areas you mentioned, some of us has seen storm damage through many of these areas and especially on the western slopes of the Byfield mountains that would make you shudder. Unlike you some of us have actually seen this before.
As previously mentioned lets see the data that was recorded for Samuel Hill right up unitl Telstra's network failed, why is it now there, what is there to hide?
NASA image of Marcia about two hours before crossing the coast.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/6160130-1x1-940x940.jpg
Nerimbera soccer club in Rockhampton. Usual damage from a Cat1/2 cyclone? I think not.
http://media.apnarm.net.au/img/media/images/2015/02/21/9-2690665-rok200215nerimbera1_fct768x576_t620.jpg
Anyone know how strong winds need to be to knock over 100 year old Bunya trees like the ones at the Rockhampton Botanical Gardens?
Just a little summer storm wasn't it.
Anyone doubting the severitry of this event is a fool. Spangled Drongo, read the post way up top from mister Higgins that states the data from Middle Percy Island (AGAIN NOT IN THE DIRECT LINE OF MARCIA) is in line with a Cat 5 cyclone passing close by.
All of you doubters, get off you high horses and in your car and go up to Byfield, Woodbury, Adelaide Park etc. Get up to Stockyard Point and talk to the people who were actually there (unlike any of you).
Matt my understanding is that Samuel Hill was out of action before the cyclone reached it so has no recordings, (thanks for the geography lesson I am well aware of where Samuel hill is, in fact I have been there quite a few times). The point of my post was all these so called experts sitting in their offices making calls on what happened here, I am simply inviting then to come and get some witness account and see what the cyclone has done here. I am not talking about the pine forests I am talking about the huge silky oaks and figs that are snapped like toothpicks. As Ben stated, it was not only the pine, and the northern end of Byfield certainly copped it the worst. Two weeks on Byfield is a long way from being cleaned up
Having weathered several cyclones starting with David in the 70's I can tell all of you that Marcia was the strongest and most damaging I have gone through, regardless of the figures. Trees did blow over but still many shorn off, blood wood and eucalyptus.
I'm in Adelaide Park, major damage to property as well as trees. Byfield a lot of tree damage blown over. However Yaxley Road north had trees shorn off 2m to 3m above ground, not pine, but stringy-bark, blood wood, melaleuca, like a bomb blast.
Buildings were covered with leaves stuck to buildings like glued there in a leopard spot effect, we still have them stuck on house and shed.
So it's all academic to me how fast it was, it was nasty regardless.