When it comes to extreme weather, cyclones are top of my list. The most extreme cyclone to hit Queensland, Tropical Cyclone Mahina, was arguably the world’s most intense with a central pressure recorded at 880 hectopascals, a 12-metre storm surge, and 300 kilometre per hour winds. It was named, by Queensland government meteorologist, Clement Wragge. That was in 1899 – 126 years ago.
Contrary to popular narratives cyclones are not becoming more intense, and their frequency is waning. CSIRO research has confirmed a statistically significant downward trend in the annual number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region over the period extending from 1981/82 to 2017/18 that is during the satellite period. The intensity of these cyclones is also in decline.
The number and intensity of cyclones crossing the Australian mainland is in decline, but only considering the last 50 years.
This is perhaps some comfort to those watching the approach of Tropical Cyclone Alfred in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. TC Alfred has a central pressure of 978 hectopascals (1316 UTC 6th March 2025) and is sustaining winds near its centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour already being experienced along the coast to Lennox Heads.
TC Alfred will pack a bad punch. But southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales have sustained such low pressure and strong winds before. The best idea is to make sure you have a stash of water, and also a gas cylinder. There is nothing quite like being able to make a cup of tea on the camping stove when the mains electricity and water is not working.
In fact, during the period 1935 to 1974 every other year there was a cyclone making landfall as far south as Brisbane and into New South Wales. There were two cyclones making landfall as far south as New South Wales in 1934: on January 30th and then again on February 19th. Two cyclones also made landfall in New South Wales in 1959: TC Beatrice and TC Connie. These four cyclones are listed in a journal article by J.L. Gray et al. entitled ‘On the Recent Hiatus of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling in NSW, Australia’ published in the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science in 2020.
The climate follows cycles, and it is the case that there has been a hiatus of tropical cyclones making landfall near Brisbane.
There was a period of some decades during the first half of the twentieth century when cyclones were given numbers rather than names. That was immediately following the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the appointment of Henry A. Hunt as its founding director on 1 January 1907.
Headquartered in Melbourne, the first thing Hunt did was focus on consolidating ‘the disparate’ state services. In fact, he immediately sacked Clement Wragge and some other first-class meteorologists with attitudes and also discontinued Wragge’s naming of cyclones.
Wragge was ahead of his time. Hunt did recognise the value of the white louvred boxes, now known as Stevenson screens, that Wragge began using in some parts of Queensland a good two decades before they were later installed, under Hunt’s directives in New South Wales and Victoria beginning only in 1908. So, a reliable temperature record exists back to the late 1880s for parts of Queensland, a good twenty years before the southern states.
We know from the work of Clement Wragge, still denied by many particularly in Melbourne, that not only were the cyclones severe back in the 1890s it was also very hot sometimes.
It is a large system, a large cyclone, right now sitting just off shore from Brisbane.
It is definitely time to put the surf boards and paddle boards away.
Just got the computer working after a week or so.
Karen, No one denies there is a tiny amount of SLR [if you take vertical land movement into account it is even tinier] but it has been going on since the little ice age.
And it is not accelerating due to any current "warming".
Further back in time the MWP reached Antarctic waters.
https://notrickszone.com/2025/03/09/medieval-warm-period-undeniable-pronounced-in-antarctica-and-poland-2-new-studies-show/
The Southern Hemisphere was still in the grip of the LIA until around 1900.
'Based upon historical records the evidence suggests unprecedented numbers of icebergs were present in southern shipping channels in the 1890s.
'When these historical observations are combined with modern iceberg drift trajectories, their possible origin can be elucidated.
'Owing to the numbers of icebergs seen and their geographical spread, our results suggest that this was possibly the largest near-synchronous calvings in the last 300 years, and the northernmost extent of the SOLOKI.' (Headland et al 2023)
An argument can be made that cyclones and hurricanes were more severe during the LIA.
Thanks Jennifer,
That's an interesting account of tropical cyclones and how their occurrence changes over time
Karen, you have a point. We need to run for our lives due to the regression you kindly provided. I suggest heading to Luleå, where isostatic rebound decreases sea levels.
It's also good for the children and grandchildren etc. Less Islamists and as cold as needed. Very good, no tropical cyclones, high standard of living and absolutely no stuff Australians would call heat waves. I promise. You'll almost miss the hot sun.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
Look at March 1899.
spangled drongo, do you know what a regression line is? Here's a clue, "In statistical modeling, regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the relationships between a dependent variable and one or more error-free independent variables."
You can't just cherry-pick points to suit your preconceived beliefs. This is the basis of science.
You posted a dataset to make a biased point; I demonstrated that, with the most simple statistical analysis, the data you posted demonstrates the exact opposite of your claims.
Sea levels are incontrovertibly rising at Fort Denison.