Australia could experience drought twice as often and the events will be twice as severe within 20 to 30 years, according to a new Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report.
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Tony Burke yesterday released the report commissioned by the Rudd Government as part of a review of national drought policy.
According to the media release:
"The overall review, announced in April, will help prepare farmers, rural communities and Australia’s primary industries for the challenges of climate change.
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO climatic report on future drought events – the first of its kind in Australia – will be considered as part of the drought policy review.
Key findings of the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report include:
Under a high scenario, droughts could occur twice as often, cover twice the area and be more severe in key agricultural production areas;
The current definition of ‘Exceptional Circumstances’, which defines areas eligible to apply for Federal Government drought assistance, is out-of-date;
Temperatures currently defined as ‘exceptional’ are likely to occur, on average, once in every two years in many key agricultural production areas within the next 20 to 30 years;
We need better ways of getting information about climate change preparedness to farmers."
So it seems the government is reverting to scenario-modelling to determine its drought policy and will focus on a worst case scenario by way of a high emissions scenario.
There is really nothing new in this approach, indeed in November 2004 then NSW Premier Bob Carr released a report by CSIRO entitled 'Climate Change in New South Wales' alerting us to the possiblity of more frequent droughts. Given this report was also based on scenario-modelling I suggested at the time in my The Land column that the CSIRO could have spiced the report up even more by scenario-modelling a war and a volcanic eruption into it.
------------------
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report ‘An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional climatic events’ is available at www.daff.gov.au/droughtpolicyreview.
32 comments deleted following a request from a reader - and noting many comments were off topic and made various assumptions about race and religon that could not be substantiated.
Key findings of the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report include:
• Under a high scenario, droughts could occur twice as often, cover twice the area and be more severe in key agricultural production areas;
Tony Burk’s ministerial release refers to this as;
Australia could experience drought twice as often and the events will be twice as severe within 20 to 30 years, according to a new Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO report.
In effect, marketing that a high end scenario as, (for policy purposes,) a prediction.
A high end scenario refers to computer modeling –virtual science. Set up the model, then run “what ifs” by tweaking the inputs. (We do this with budgets.) Everything depends upon the integrity of the inputs, and of the assumptions of the programmers (or budgeter) and both are seriously at risk from the GIGO factor.
The above is a good example of virtuous corruption of virtual science. Here it is the Ministerial PR staff virtuously corrupting virtual science. This leaves both the BOM and CSIRO open to loss of public trust and standing.