Yes, not a recent newspaper article, but the page 2 headline in the Nov. 2, 1922 edition of The Washington Post, discovered by John Lockwood at the Library of Congress in Washington DC - a reminder that the 1920's and 1930's were warm. In fact, 1934 has overtaken 1998 as the warmest US year following a recent data correction, with 1921 coming third.
The global cooling of the 1940's to 1970's prompted The Cooling World article in Newsweek on 28th April 1975. This all goes to illustrate how lightweight some sections of the media are. The post 1970's warming is now well established and the media are much more climate aware, so similar scary headlines are now a weekly occurrance, with the Arctic sea ice featuring prominently. However, the Arctic situation represents regional change, rather than global - there is no equivalent loss of sea ice in the Antarctic. Dust, black carbon, aerosols and Ozone are being implicated in Arctic warming, in addition to greenhouse gases.
Well you have globally speaking IMO if you add it all up.
So you want to suspend all other variables like internal variability, volcanoes and solar input. You'll just have to wait around for a while longer won't you. A vengeful God won't give it to you this easily? But that's OK - you're not convinced - can handle that with no umbrage.
No Luke, I have never said it was not happening. What I have said repeatedly is that it is only happening within the historical range of variation. Greenhouse warming may well be "just getting started" but at this stage we can state categorically that after a 40% increase in CO2 levels over more than a century, we still have not entered uncharted waters.
You gotta 1920s map ? We've been over the clouds before.
And did I say it was worse. It's just that according your envelope it's not happening ! Just another point in that linear regression.
And remember greenhouse warming is just getting started.
Just a small hint Luke, "lowest since 1978". This is a thread about reports of melting ice in the 1920s, remember?
So repetition of this current satellite data will not provide any information on the scale of past movements. And given the faults in the temperature records then there is every possibility that past ice coverage matched the temperature record.
And there is nothing in your reference about cloud substitution to counter ice albedo changes.
You just cant avoid extrapolating from limited data sets, can you?
OK Mottsa - well we're back quicker than you think with some Mottsian envelope and albedo theory busting news.
Total area of sea ice in Arctic Ocean smallest
since observations started
- Much faster pace of ice melting than forecasted -
August 16, 2007 (JST)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)
Overview
The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC, led by President Yasuhiro Kato) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA, led by President Keiji Tachikawa) cooperatively analyzed oceanic and atmospheric observation data and sea ice data acquired by satellites, and found that the sea ice area in the Arctic Ocean has been decreasing at a much faster pace than expected compared to the previous worst record in the summer of 2005. After satellite observations started in 1978, the observed area shrunk to its lowest level on August 15, 2007. Ice melting normally continues until mid September, thus further shrinkage of the sea ice area is expected. The observed phenomenon significantly exceeded the forecasted model submitted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth Assessment Report, and the big difference tells us that the model may not precisely reflect the actual situation in the Arctic Ocean.
Contents
The following are findings as a result of analyses of observation data acquired by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E)*1. The AMSR-E acquires observation data and visible images of sea ice density.
Since July, the smallest record of sea ice area in the Arctic Ocean has been broken every day.
Since the beginning of August, the shrinkage of sea ice has been accelerated by a low pressure system generated and lingering off Siberia.
On August 15, the total sea ice area in the Arctic Ocean reached a new low.
If this pace of melting continues, the sea ice area reduction pace may significantly exceed the IPCC forecast, and it may actually reach the forecasted values for 2040 to 2050 (Figure 2 and 3.)
Estimated causes
The following are estimated causes of accelerated sea ice reduction this year as a result of the comprehensive analysis of the observation data acquired by JAMSTEC including observation data by ships, continued observation by drifting buoys (JCAD, POPS*2) and atmospherics data. (Please refer to Figure 4)
Sea ice reduction has been observed not only along the coast of Alaska but also along the Arctic Ocean shore of Canada this year. Accordingly, the impact of friction from coastal areas is smaller than usual thus sea ice tends to move in a large scale. Therefore, fragile and easy-to-melt ice that has just formed in coastal areas moves over a north latitude of 80 degrees and spreads into the Arctic Ocean.
As the fragile ice spreading into the Arctic Ocean melted quickly and that facilitates the ocean water to absorb more sunshine, ocean warming and sea ice melting have accelerated.
More sea ice has been drifting toward the Atlantic Ocean from the Arctic Ocean, thus the volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has been decreasing.
You can find the latest image of sea ice density in the Arctic Ocean and past observation images on the website of the International Arctic Research Center (IARC, Alaska Fairbanks.) The image data is updated using the IARC-JAXA information system (IJIS), which JAXA places at the IARC.
(URL:http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e)
More detail including imagery and graphs at:
http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2007/08/20070816_arctic_e.html
Hello again
The pack ice returning to Iceland might be interesting for you.
Thickest ever seen by locals.
Seems to me Luke, Ender et al. are engaged in "proof by ridicule" or the equally juvenile tit-for-tat game of proof by exhaustion.
He swung again. Giggle. But be hopeful the prediction doesn't come true, as given you're all excited about 0.02 C difference between 1998 and 1934 we'll back pushing it under your nose as of big importance on your criteria.
Well Ian I don't know about global - given the mid-troposphere above Antarctica is warming more than anywhere else on Earth and given we have significant changes in polar circulation I think we can indeed make the "global claim". Golly you're getting soft - what a pushover. ROTFL.
P.S. In terms of your 50 mm - entire supposition - no references = no credibility I'm afraid. Unless you've personally ground truthed it.