The environmental movement has achieved much over the last few decades. Much of this can be dated from the publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring in 1962, and the formation of Greenpeace in 1971 marks the effective birth of organised, high profile activism. From these beginnings, in less than half a century, environmentalism has become mainstream. In the industrialised world, air and water quality has improved tremendously, recycling rates have steadily improved, and European farmers are paid for conservancy work rather than just growing food. By any standards, this degree of change is a major achievement.
But successful organisations don't just fold when they have achieved their aims: they find new causes and new goals. Having established their influence, they are loathe to lose it. The original term NGO (Non-Governmental Organisation) has increasingly been replaced by CSO (Civil Society Organisation). Under this guise, these unelected bodies are viewed by politicians as legitimate representatives of public opinion. However, worldwide membership of Greenpeace is believed to be less than 3 million, well down from its peak in the early 90s. The nature conservancy body with by far the largest membership in the UK is the RSPB (Royal Society for the Protection of Birds), with around one million members. Clearly, these are significant organisations, but such membership numbers still categorise them as minority groups.
But their continued influence belies the figures. In the USA, things are different; business lobbies are very powerful and environmentalists do not take priority. In Europe, this is certainly not the case. The doors of politicians and policymakers are wide open to environmentalists, with businesses often having much less access. And the results are clear to see in the spread of ever more stringent and precautionary legislation.
The furore created over GM crops resulted in a complex and barely-workable legislative framework, with no evidence that the public is any the safer for it. The REACH (Registration, Evaluation and Approval of Chemicals) regulation is a sledgehammer to crack a nut, demanding safety testing of a wide range of chemicals in everyday use (and requiring the use of tens of thousands more laboratory animals). And current proposals for revision of the already tough European directive on pesticides would see decisions being made on the basis of hazard rather than scientific risk assessment. Avoidance of all risk seems to be the aim, with no weighing of this against the benefits. To make matters worse, decisions are made by politicians rather than on the advice of experts.
They have achieved so much in part because they are believers in a cause, and don't necessarily let facts get in the way of achieving their ends. Greenpeace infamously prevented Shell from doing the environmentally sound thing of sinking the Brent Spar oil rig in the ocean and forced them instead to dismantle it on shore. In this case, they apologised later for giving false information, but were apparently still pleased to have achieved their victory. In the case of agriculture, all sorts of partial, selective or misleading data is quoted while anything not supporting the case is ignored. A prime example was a Greenpeace/Soil Association study claiming that GM crops were a failure in North America, on the basis of interviews with a few dozen disgruntled farmers and activists, while acreage was actually growing rapidly year on year.
The reason we have reached this position is that the values of the environmentalist movement are also part of the makeup of many politicians and civil servants. At the same time, there seems to be increasing distrust of business and the profit motive. No matter that it is overwhelmingly the private sector that creates wealth and - directly and indirectly - funds the revenue streams which governments need, the business lobby is seen as intrinsically selfish and greedy. On the other hand, environmental lobby groups, as well as enjoying their unwarranted position as the voice of public opinion, are deemed to have pure and unselfish motives.
This, of course, is a caricature. In practice, a wary and distrustful population does not believe everything which Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth may say, but they tend to distrust governments and businesses even more, at least according to public opinion surveys. But this imbalance tips the scales in favour of the NGOs (sorry, CSOs) and their influence on policy. We have even seen recently that Friends of the Earth Europe receives half its funding from the European Union, and then spends this money lobbying the very institutions who provided it.
Big Environmentalism represents vested interests every bit as much as does the business lobby. Their motives may be different but they are no purer. At heart, they want power and influence so that they can shape policy to their liking. They are politicians by any other name, but they remain unelected. Despite the good things the movement has helped to achieve in the past, their influence now is surely too strong if we want rational, balanced policymaking to be the norm.
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(Paul Biggs is a member of The Scientific Alliance)
From Ann's: " that the best thing that could happen to our climate campaign is a new Katrina hurricane and a new Chernobyl accident..."
This is the thing that gets my goat with the climate change debate. From the enviro politics side, it appears that it's all about scaring people to do the right thing. You over emphasise one side and de-emphasise the other. And what's worse - if you don't have a real disaster to spin - you manufacture it!
This is a dangerous game and can backfire. The above can only work if people are ignorant and stupid... And people are neither. It is not difficult these days to verify things - and if even a little bit of subterfuge is discovered, it's game set and match - nobody will believe anymore (the Brand is dead).
Case in point (my newest irregularity in one of the climate change totems):
I was looking through some bits and pieces on the Arctic and found this. I found slide 11 extremely interesting:
http://ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/meetings/oopc-9/presentations/monPM/Rayner_OOPC9_pr.pdf
So it made me think – this is the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea-ice extent. I’m sure that everyone has seen this trumpeted regularly in the last week or two and shows that the northwest passage is well and truly opened:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg
This is a current satellite photo shows the NW passage - it tells a little different story:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2007234/crefl1_143.A2007234194000-2007234194500.4km.jpg
The northwest passage is still closed. In fact there appears to be a lot more ice in the area that what Cryosphere Today suggests.
Some time ago I pointed out that something changed in Cryosphere Today’s historical sea-ice anomaly record.
http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/2918/anomalykm3.gif
So I begin to wonder if the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea-ice extent measurements are based on microwave soundings and if original compensating adjustments (i.e. for the 25% underestimation from slide 11) were re-adjusted out. And I wonder why they put up ice extents that clearly conflict with observation?
I have been following a forum where the CT historical change was identified and where participants contacted CT for an explanation. There has not been an answer for nigh on two months. Luke contacted NCDC/NOAA for an explanation of an anomaly that I found in Australian Temperature and their global temp records. The explanation that was received was not entirely satisfactory. Without adequate explanations - ultimately I suspect an environment agenda of some kind – let’s manufacture a disaster!
Bottom line is - if I find these sort of unexplained irregularities in something that is being rammed down my throat as proof that I should accept a reduction in my living standard, I lose trust. So when somebody now rams a lovely digitalised, colourised, Cryosphere Today pic in front of me - I think "just more propaganda".
I’m sure that there are others that will feel the same way.
Any way, food for thought...
cheers
Arnost
'Lamna also omits to mention that cotton is a cash crop, not a food crop, and is therefore unrelated to the problems associated with feeding people in countries where local currencies are either worthless or inflate at 1,000% per year or worse.' - Schiller
Disingenuous as ever Thurkettle, if the farmer is not growing a food crop, he needs to be able to sell his cash crop to buy food, so if the market is awash with the Uncle Sam's subsidised GE cotton thats why his local currency is worthless and he can't afford food...
You dont like Vandana's figures?... then give us verifiable US government subsidy figures for GE cash and food crops big fella...oh and chuck in the import duties on foreign GE crops as well... it will be just as interesting for the Aussie GE lobbyists as farmers in developing countries...
What Lamna omits to mention is that half of the certified "organic" acres in Britain consists of swamps and the sides of roadways, and that organic farming produces so little that Britain must import organic food from Africa, where they can't afford better farming methods.
Lamna also omits to mention that organic farmers are so unproductive in developing nations that they are forever begging for government subsidies to make up for their lack of productivity.
Lamna also omits to mention that cotton is a cash crop, not a food crop, and is therefore unrelated to the problems associated with feeding people in countries where local currencies are either worthless or inflate at 1,000% per year or worse.
Lamna also omits to mention that GM cotton in more developed nations, such as India, have lifted farmers out of mere subsistence, and they are living unprecedentedly well.
Lamna also omits to mention that Vandana Shiva doesn't even know what a rice field looks like! She looked at a fallow field of weeds and said, "That rice looks sad." The farmer replied, "Ma'am, that's not rice, that's weeds."
Citing Vandana is either crooked or ignorant.
What Schiller omits to mention is that he is talking complete and utter tosh... here in the UK the organic farming industry has been a means for farmers to charge more for their produce because it has added value in the market place, which has helped loosen the supermarket and food processing corporations iron grip on farmers throats, choking the financial life out of them to increase profits for the corporations.
But of course what Thurkettle means is the starving developing world where genocidal European greenie subsidies are slaughtering millions....
'Similarly, 25000 cotton producers in the U.S are given a subsidy of approx $4 billion annually. This has brought cotton prices down artificially, allowing the U.S to capture world markets which were earlier accessible to poor African countries such as Burkina, Faso, Benin, Mali.
The subsidy of $230 per acre in the U.S is genocidal for the African farmers. African cotton farmers are loosing $250 million every year. That is why small African countries walked out of the Cancun negotiations' - Vandana Shiva
Oops, that would appear to be American GM product... how embarrassing...
Thurkettle is just cranky because he didn't pick up Whole Foods Market shares back in the day....thought it was just a Texan fad...
What Lamna omits to mention is that farmers always quit farming "organically" when it's within their means to do so, unless there's a substantial subsidy available for producing half as much food per acre or less.
When James Mayeau gave us this link I spent a while pondering the records, too long as I was quite busy elsewhere.
http://www.unur.com/climate/ghcn-v2/501/index.html
The last dozen or so numbers contain stations in places I know and I can’t explain all we see. At a glance some of it seemed absurd.
For starters, what is a zoomed in version?
Waratah; 95950 seems to have a nice steady record but it’s been adjusted. That old mining town is a damned cold place. Passing through every day in the winter of 1986 I carried in the wagon a down filled sleeping bag in case I got stuck in ice or snow as traffic was low.
Wynyard 95957 it would seem shows an oscillation. OK; what about the frost?
“vertical and horizontal scales are automatically computed by the graphing library” ??
Orford 95984 another coastal town on the far side of the island is similar. Also what about the differences between our airports and PO locations? IMO it’s not the problem.
Note: Merimbula 95930 another small airport on the mainland is similar. Compare it to Montague Is 95935 up the NSW Coast. Not bad hmmm.
However Mt Wellington - Grove Research 95978 absolutely defeats me. What have they done to the records? Must be dodgy gear hey, rather than dodgy filters that left us with some obvious discontinuities.
Yesterday I picked up an old MiG Tot. Imm. thermometer in a very tarnished slotted 32 cm brass tube. If I get time today I will attempt a home calibration for old times sake. It should remind me of some difficulties working between -10 to 110 C in .1 C guestimates. After a good case clean let’s do it all over hampered by the viewing slot and case delays!