One of the most influential scientists behind the theory that global warming has intensified recent hurricane activity says he will reconsider his stand.
The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane activity this week. The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.
Read more in the Houston Chronicle: Hurricane expert reconsiders global warming's impact
The peer reviewed BMAS article is available on Kerry Emanuel's homepage here.
This is another blow to climate alarmists and Gore's AIT, where the 'science' is presented as being 'settled.'
Let's see if the mainstream media report on this and if the BBC can post a website article unmolested by 'climate campiagner' Jo Abbess.
Err - a classic straw-man:
Kerry Emanual Reconsiders Global Warming Impact on Hurricanes
Posted by Paul, at 05:32 PM
One of the most influential scientists behind the theory that global warming has intensified recent hurricane activity says he will reconsider his stand.
As for hurrucanes increasing over the past 25 years - so what!? It's the old "let's use a short record" con and ignore earlier periods when there was high hurricane activity. Pretty much everything in nature is cyclical, including hurricanes.
Just filing this here:
http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/2008/04/the_inconsistency_of_cranks.php
The inconsistency of cranks
Category: Cranks • Global Warming Denialism
Posted on: April 17, 2008 11:28 AM, by MarkH
One of the most salient features of cranks is their inconsistency. A major difference between someone who is trying to reason scientifically and someone who has a fixed belief they are trying to defend against rational inquiry is the scientific thinker is looking for synthesis. They want things to fit together nicely, to make sense, and incorporate as much of the data as possible into a cohesive picture or theory that is convincing to ones peers so they adopt your view...
A crank, on the other hand, doesn't care about internal consistency, presenting a cohesive picture of any kind, or creating a body of knowledge to be adopted and utilized by their peers. If someone has a different theory that is completely different from theirs they don't care, as long as it remains opposed to the scientific theory that impinges upon their fixed belief.
Case in point, Jennifer Marohasy's blog features this post which exclaims with glee that Kerry Emanuel has reversed his position on the role of global warming on hurricanes based on this news piece. In an example of crank magnetism Dave Scot at Uncommon Descent has also picked up this thread only he exclaims that Emanuel has reversed his position on global warming itself (check out the intellectual company you keep when you're a global warming denialist, sheesh)...
As far as Kerry Emanuel reversing his position, they got that wrong too. Here's what he told me:
Unfortunately, reports about my paper have been greatly distorted. I am certainly not denying global warming, nor am I denying a link to increasing hurricane power, but I am pointing out that one particular technique suggests less of an increase going forward than we previously feared. Also, the technique, when applied to historical climate data from 1980-2006, strongly re-affirms earlier analyses that show that hurricane power has increased by about 50% over the past 25 years....
Paul - "2008: two of the seven model simulations Emanuel ran suggested that the overall intensity of storms would decline. Five models suggested a modest increase."
Since when did you think that computer models are OK. I thought they were parameter driven fools games intended to deceive. Why are you hanging on their every prediction now?
Louis:
http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/abslmp/abslmp.shtml
Long term ocean warming??
Luke, some facts please.
Journal reference: Nature (DOI:10.1038/nature03906
Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years
Kerry Emanuel said:
Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and—taking into account an increasing coastal population—a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.
Global Warming Surpassed Natural Cycles in Fueling 2005 Hurricane Season, NCAR Scientists Conclude
June 22, 2006
BOULDER—Global warming accounted for around half of the extra hurricane-fueling warmth in the waters of the tropical North Atlantic in 2005, while natural cycles were only a minor factor, according to a new analysis by Kevin Trenberth and Dennis Shea of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The study will appear in the June 27 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.
By analyzing worldwide data on sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) since the early 20th century, Trenberth and Shea were able to calculate the causes of the increased temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their calculations show that global warming explained about 0.8 degrees F of this rise. After effects from the 2004-05 El Nino accounted for about 0.4 degrees F. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), a 60-to-80-year natural cycle in SSTs, explained less than 0.2 degrees F of the rise, according to Trenberth. The remainder is due to year-to-year variability in temperatures.
Previous studies have attributed the warming and cooling patterns of North Atlantic ocean temperatures in the 20th century—and associated hurricane activity—to the AMO. But Trenberth, suspecting that global warming was also playing a role, looked beyond the Atlantic to temperature patterns throughout Earth's tropical and midlatitude waters. He subtracted the global trend from the irregular Atlantic temperatures—in effect, separating global warming from the Atlantic natural cycle. The results show that the AMO is actually much weaker now than it was in the 1950s, when Atlantic hurricanes were also quite active. However, the AMO did contribute to the lull in hurricane activity from about 1970 to 1990 in the Atlantic.
Global warming does not guarantee that each year will set records for hurricanes, according to Trenberth. He notes that last year's activity was related to very favorable upper-level winds as well as the extremely warm SSTs. Each year will bring ups and downs in tropical Atlantic SSTs due to natural variations, such as the presence or absence of El Nino, says Trenberth. However, he adds, the long-term ocean warming should raise the baseline of hurricane activity.
So has Kerry's latest results changed that much. Assuming of course you can tear yourself away from Al Gore's musings for a moment.
A modest increase with non-linear effects can increase destructiveness considerably.
Why they should keep researching. Ain't over by a long shot.
Yep - exactly. And lots more work to do.