VICTORIA has suffered a 40 per cent plunge in autumn rainfall since 1950 and climate change is a key factor, a new report has found.
Herald Sun: Victorian Autumn rain down 40 per cent since 1950: CSIRO
Fluctuations in sea-surface temperatures to the north of Australia and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over the sub-tropical Indian Ocean have been identified as key factors leading to declining rainfalls in south-eastern Australia since 1950.
CSIRO: Understanding autumn rain decline in SE Australia
South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
Thanks to Gavin and Luke.
It's the combination of the report findings in the lead article with more El Nino events. All adds up over time. Needs a big La Nina reset. Hasn't happened.
I moved to Canberra in the mid-1950's. Lake George had water. Road maps at the time showed "Lake George (usually dry)" or "Lake George (almost always dry)".
After 20 years or so of water in Lake George, road maps were changed to delete the reference to the lake's "normal" state.
By the early/mid 1990's I understand that the lake dried out again (I had moved overseas)and has remained more or less dry ever since.
I wonder if anyone has done a correlation of the lake's water level with PDO, or SOI, or ENSO, or sunspots, or CO2, or political party in power, or the level of Blue Lake at Mt Gambier (locals believed at one time that the two lakes were somehow connected!)
“Maybe it's because the warmers' arguments have so many flaws it's easy to pick them and concentrate on just a few”
Let’s concentrate on average rainfall over time since climate change is not only about temperature.
Given the input about drought and water restrictions, what’s up with our climate can easily be measured by inflows to water storages in major catchments relative to our expectations of their yields.
Btw SJT; A Watts n Co are not renowned for their expertise on water storage and distribution even in blog circles (IMO) however please correct me if I’m wrong on that score.
Too much argument is limited by poor imagination on the analysis front.
SJT said: "I wish denialists could get their story straight. Anthony Watts still can't decide if it's even changing."
Maybe it's because the warmers' arguments have so many flaws it's easy to pick them and concentrate on just a few.
- where's the data to support that ! The PDO actually stops El Nino events?
Ocean gyres and southern circulation patterns have moved long before the PDO moved.
Let's not forget that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has slopped a huge body of warm water to the western Pacific. The increase in temperature is about 1.2 degrees.
The cycle time is about 40 years, so it will be warm on the north east coast of Australia for quite a long time.
The PDO is a well documented natural phenomenon, nothing to do with AGW.