SCIENCE was once about matching theory with reality. According to American physicist and historian Thomas Kuhn this perhaps more than anything else contributed to the phenomenal progress made by scientists over the last 400 years.
But many people appear to have a problem with understanding theory and considering it in the context of reality. Consider Anna Rose and her performance on the documentary ‘I Can Change Your Mind About Climate Change’ featured on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) this evening. Ms Rose was flown across Australia and around the world to talk with climate change sceptics but refused to engage constructively on issues of scientific evidence. Yet evidence is central to science and in particular determining whether theory and reality match.
Instead of listening to what Richard Linzen had to say about feedback mechanism and global climate she said he was not credible because of his views on passive smoking. When it came to Marc Morano, another person introduced to her as sceptical of anthropogenic global warming, Anna Rose point blank refused to talk with him because she said he was a liar. Clearly Mr Morano is influential, here was an opportunity for Anna Rose to apparently show him up as a liar, and she would not engage.
Nick Minchin, who travelled with Ms Rose and who had been specifically tasked with attempting to change Anna Rose's mind, also tried with the evidence, but he didn't see able to engage her either.
Jo Nova, David Evans, Richard Lindzen and Marc Morano all provided data that would suggest the theory as promoted by Anna Rose does not accord with reality, but she would not engage.
I noted she suggested that there was something wrong with the sea temperature chart provided by Mr Evans, so why didn’t she provide an explanation and show us what the situation really is with respect to sea temperature?
Instead Ms Rose suggested that all credible scientists say we have a problem, that increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are going to result in the destruction of our economy and the Great Barrier Reef, and we must believe them. Does she realize she is just appealing to authority and not engaging with the evidence?
It would have been easy enough for the documentary makers to nail a couple of issue of evidence. For example, what is the real story with global sea temperatures? But instead, by the end of the documentary it appeared they were keen to move from the science to issue of renewable energy and so was Anna Rose.
Tony Jones suggested, when he opened the Q&A session that immediately followed the documentary on our ABC, that he wanted to focus on renewable energy issues and that the science was no longer a central issue, but every time a sceptic began with some scientific facts, Mr Jones called on “his scientist” Matthew England who was ‘wired-up’ in the audience to put a particular perspective with respect to the science; the ABC perspective.
And according to Jo Nova:
“We did 4 hours of footage at our house, and they showed not one single point I made, not one answer to Anna Rose’s questions. I repeated my favourite lines about 28 million weather balloons, 3000 ocean buoys off by heart at least 4 times [which show no global warming and therefore a mismatch between reality and theory]. Obviously everything I said was too ‘dangerous’. But we have the full tape of the whole event, so sooner or later the world will see the parts that the ABC deemed to be not ‘interesting’ to the Australian public. So all in all, pretty much as we expected. They trimmed it down to the point where it’s tame, they gave the alarmists the last word (they always do)…”
Our ABC has no concept of evidence, or the importance of attempting to match theory with reality, as part of assessing the reliability of a scientific theory.
And it is disappointing that our ABC couldn't bring itself to get even one sceptical scientist into the Q&A audience to provide some support for Nick Minchin - though he did well enough on his own.
Jeezuz, is Luke still kickin? OK, which one of you drongos donated a liver to keep this nematode going?
It's time we resurrected the concept of Denial as the only possible explanation for the wilful ignorance on the part of the culture at ABC and Luke, who's been around long enough for his notochord to have absorbed the facts by osmosis.
That would be psychological Denial, not the Green slur, Denialism, which attempts to connect scientific skepticism of the Warmist orthodoxy with Neo-Nazi Holocaust denial.
Denial is the inability to cognitively process facts sitting right in front of your bloody nose. It's usually caused by trauma and is the first stage of the Kubler-Ross grief recovery model. But in Luke's and the ABC's case it's more related to classical addiction behaviour, as in alcoholics who are in denial of their disease.
The ABC, as the not-so-secret propaganda arm of the Labor/Green coalition is addicted to the Climate Change trope as their best critique of free market economics. Fear of apocalypse was suppose to frighten us all into surrendering our minds and civils liberties to the "great moral challenge of our age," which is to concentrate power and wealth in the hand of unelected technocrats and regulators in Canberra and the United Nations.
Epic Fail. So maybe the Kubler Ross model of denial as a reaction to grief is partly an explanation too.
David Evan's youtube falsification of the AGW hypothesis makes it clear climate science isn't rocket science. Even a child can follow the basic arguments. Yet the ABC can't bring itself to understand it, much less, heaven forbid let the public hear it explained.
I challenge Luke make a rational argument as to why David Evans is wrong. Or explain how the Earth's climate remains stable if water vapour feedback is massively positive on every minor warming event.
Here's a clue--If the Earth's climate was dominated by X3 amplification on any warming event, then we wouldn't be here having this debate.
Or maybe Luke is in denial of that too.
Oh well Debs - looks like we don't get to discuss the evidence (on a thread about evidence mind you).
Well gee whiz Luke,
The silence is deafening.
Here is the man whom you have maligned on many occaisions claiming his work is gish gallop, cherry picking, unpublished (therefore amateurish) ,wiggle watching, old hat, shown to be wrong and the list goes on and on and on.
Here is is, offering you the chance to tackle him on this issue.
I've waited with interest to see what you had to say about this post and you instead seem to have gone MIA ?
I hope it's just because you have been away from your computer for over a day?
Luke says (April 30th, 2012 at 11:12 am): “Tisdale is unpublished irrelevance – shown to be wrong. Tell us when he’s published. Until then – ho hum.”
Still using the tired old hasn’t-published-a-peer-reviewed-paper argument, Luke? Everyone who reads the thread here at Jennifer’s understands what that means. It means YOU either:
1) checked the results and found them to be correct, or
2) are incapable of disputing my post.
Luke says (April 30th, 2012 at 11:12 am): Ho hum for Bob – such golden oldies as http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/tisdale-fumbles-pielke-cheers/
and http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/favorite-denier-tricks-or-how-to-hide-the-incline/”
Again, Luke, everyone who reads this thread can also read right through that comment, too. They know it would have taken you little time (2 minutes max) to download the Reynolds OI.v2 sea surface temperature data, for the coordinates of 90S-90N, 20E-70W, for the period of 1995 to present, to confirm or contradict my results. But if you didn’t do that, assuming you’re able to do it, you wasted your time searching Tamino’s website. And you probably spent more time doing that than downloading the data. The readers here understand that Tamino’s attempts to critique my posts are nonsense. Did you read my replies to them? Here’s a link to the rebuttal to your first link, in which Tamino overreacts to a disclaimer I put on a couple of graphs:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/tamino-misses-the-point-and-attempts-to-distract-his-readers/
And here's a link to my comments on your second Tamino link:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/05/13/on-taminos-post-favorite-denier-tricks-or-how-to-hide-the-incline/
Those rebuttals to Tamino’s nonsense also ran at WattsUpWithThat. Here are links to those threads too so you can go through the comments. A couple of Tamino’s disciples made known their lack of understanding on the topics at hand:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/20/shades-of-foster-grant/
And:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/13/technical-paper-training-for-hansens-bulldog/
Luke says (April 30th, 2012 at 5:45 pm): “Can’t be bothered wasting time on unpublished amateurs.”
That seems to be your only tack, Luke. But it only really reflects badly on you. Maybe you actually did download the data and discovered I was right. So maybe you’re just blowing smoke. Or maybe, just maybe, you’re not capable of disproving the key graph in the post that Neville linked, which was this one:
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/figure-26.png
It’s a simple graph. It shows that the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Indian and Pacific Oceans from pole to pole (90S-90N, 20E-70W) haven’t warmed for the past 17 years. That chunk of the data represents 75% of the surface area of the global oceans. 75%. And it shows a linear trend of 0.004 deg C/Decade. EXCEL’s linear trend analysis does a wonderful job of calculating the trends and throwing those nice staight lines on the graph, don't ya think?.
Neville found that post so noteworthy he provided a link on this thread. Here’s another one:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/how-you-can-confirm-the-sst-anomalies-for-the-indian-and-pacific-ocean-subset-have-not-warmed-for-17-years/
And after your comments he asked me how he could verify the results. So I wrote a post that illustrates where and how to find the data. That way any or all of the readers here at Jennifer's blog who know how to create a time-series graph on a spreadsheet can confirm those results. They’ll see how easy and quickly they can verify that the sea surface temperature anomalies of that chunk of the global oceans have not warmed since 1995.
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/how-you-can-confirm-the-sst-anomalies-for-the-indian-and-pacific-ocean-subset-have-not-warmed-for-17-years/
And I’ll invite Jennifer to cross post it here. She can cross post both posts if she likes.
Regards
Thanks Derek. Fascinating stuff. Hope Luke and Gav read it.
Here's a bit of supreme, peer reviewed irony. 10 times the current warming rate just from on-shore windfarms. Maybe the off-shore windfarms will warm the oceans too:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1505.html
G'day Spangled, for a brilliant article on the so-called missing heat BS, go to the following;
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/ocean.html
it puts it all into perspective.
Cheers.
Gish gallop = don't confuse me with facts Neville.
Besides, our Lukie has metaphorically dipped his toe in all those oceans and ya can't fool him.
But I would like his opinion on why the whales are leaving the Antarctic.
Maybe the Japanese are still shooting them down there?