ANTHROPOGENIC Global Warming (AGW) theory claims the earth is warming because rising CO2 is like a blanket, reducing Earth’s energy loss to space. However, data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that at least for the last 30 years, Earth’s energy loss to space has been rising. The last 30 years of NOAA data is not compatible with the theory of AGW. It would appear that either 30 years of NOAA data is wrong or the theory of AGW is flawed. This is Michael Hammer’s conclusion following analysis of the official outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) data.
Read the complete article here: ‘The NOAA Outgoing Long Wave Radiation Data Appears to be Incompatible with The Theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming’ by Michael Hammer.
The research uncovers some interesting trends and most importantly highlights that:
1. Earth can only warm if the rate of energy input exceeds the rate of energy loss;
2. Thus earth would warm if energy absorbed from the sun increased or energy loss to space (outgoing longwave radiation or OLR for short) decreased - or of course both;
3. The theory of AGW claims that Earth is warming because rising CO2 is reducing the energy loss to space i.e. is causing OLR to decrease;
4. Thirty years of experimental data published by NOAA (one of the prime AGW reference sites) shows OLR has been rising progressively between 1980 and 2010 and is now 2.5 watt/sqM higher than in 1980; and
5. The period between 1980 and 2010 is when almost all the CO2 induced warming is supposed to have taken place.
“If the corner stone of AGW theory says earth is warming because outgoing long wave radiation is decreasing yet 30 years of experimental data shows OLR is rising (remember 30 years is the time AGW proponents claim is the interval necessary to separate climate from weather) it would seem the theory of AGW is as a minimum extremely seriously compromised.”
Read the complete article here: https://climatelab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/AGW_Falsified_Michael_Hammer.pdf
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Michael Hammer has a B Eng Sci and M Eng Sci from Melbourne university. His original training was as an electrical engineer but for the last 35 years he has been employed to carry out research across a wide range of technologies for a major multinational spectroscopy company. Over that time he has taken around 20 patents and his work has resulted in a significant number of commercially successful products.
To read older blog posts from Michael Hammer click here and scroll down: https://climatelab.com.au/author/michael-hammer/
[…] AGW Falsified: NOAA Long Wave Radiation Data Incompatible with the Theory of Anthropogenic Global Wa… […]
Robert JM; I think we are more or less in agreement. There is no doubt that CO2 is a ghg and ghg's do impede radiation of long wave energy to space however the AGW hypothesis is that rising CO2 is having a dominant impact on our climate and is the primary driver. The point is that clearly something else is having a much larger effect swamping the impact of CO2 and you are more or less saying exactly the same.
Your claim that there was a 5% step change in cloud cover in the 1990's is extremely interesting. It would indeed explain the change in OLR as you state and it would also explain the step change in temperature registered by the satellite temperature measurements (UAH). I referred to just such a change as a likely possible cause in the post. Do you have a reference for that claim of 5% change in cloud cover? If so would be most interested to have a look at it.
kind regards
Mike Hammer
Hi Kuhnkat;
You make 2 main points. Firstly you talk about a change in density and the way the air expands. There is a much simpler way of looking at the situation. The pressure at any altitude is simply a measure of the amount of gas above that altitude. Now certainly if the ghg is not well mixed its partial pressure may fall faster than the total pressure which is I think what you are getting at with your comment "The density of the GHG’s falls off rapidly above the lower troposphere". However the pressure at the tropopause from memory is about 1/3 that at sea level and the troposphere is certainly welll mixed wrt to CO2 because of the turbulence and convective processes. That means the CO2 emisison altitude MUST be higher than that point (the so called average emission altitude is claimed to be within the troposphere). Now when we go into the stratosphere things change. There is no convection (temperature inversion) and the stratosphere is relatively calm. Since CO2 is much heavier than air it could indeed pool in the lower stratosphere or if you like stratify. I have read several claims that the stratosphere is alos well mixed WRT CO2 but I dont believe them. If it were true the emission altitude for CO@would be high up in the stratosphere where the temperature is close to 270K but the Nimbus data shows that the CO2 emission altitude is about 220K corresponding to the tropopause or very low stratosphere. IN fact there is s slight upwards spike in apparent emission temperature in the middle of the CO2 band (about 240K) and thsi corresponds to the very top of the column at the band center. 240K corresponds to the low stratosphere so indeed that supports a pooling of CO2 in the stratosphere.
With regard to pointing IR thermometers at the sky. You are completely correct to say the thermometers would be reading the ghg emissions from directly above the thermometer. However a IR thermometer reads the total IR energy and uses Planks law to convert that to an apparent emission temperature. The ghg do not emit at all thermal wavelengths, specifically they do not emit at all in the atmospheric window between 8 and 13 microns and there is normally a lot of energy in that wavelength range. Thus the thermometers see emissions from warm ghg at the ghg wavelenghts and an emission in the atmospheric window corresponding to the 4K of space. Not surprising that the average comes out well below the warm ghg temperature.
ghg do not shift their absorption/emission wavelengths with temperature and pressure (at least not the sort of temperatures we are talking about). The line center remains unchanged but the line width can increase - ie: the ghg can absorb and emit over a slightly greater range of wavelengths centered about the same wavelength as before.
I hope this answers some of your questions
kindest regards
Mike Hammer
Mike Hammer,
I went back and reread your post on the effective emissions altitude. I have to disagree with your statement of how thin a layer actually emits to space. The density of the GHG's falls off rapidly above the lower troposphere which is why they have to talk about an average. There are substantial emissions from middle trop up due to this low density.
Mike Hammer,
You run into another area I am confused upon:
"Long wave or thermal emission depends only on the temperature of the emitting source and its emissivity. "
Dr. Spencer and others play with their IR thermometers and tell us that they point them at the sky and read a "temperature" that coincides loosely with the emissions altitude. As there is plenty of water vapor and other specie in the first 100 feet of the atmosphere their readings should be for the air right in front of them.
My only conclusion is that they really are reading the GHG emissions right in front of them. GHG's emit primarily based on the molecular vibratory mode I believe which changes very little due to the narrow range of temps in the atmosphere. The emissions from GHG's molecular geometry swamp their own temp based emissions.
If I am way off base would you please explain why they keep reading the low temp with their IR thermometers when the atmosphere in front of them should BLOCK the IR from above?? Also, if there is a substantial change in frequency for GHG's based on their temperature, the GHG's in the upper trop, and strat should NOT be absorbing the emissions from lower down!!! Or have they decided a GHG molecule can absorb frequencies substantially different from their emissions??
Mike Hammer,
"This has nothing whatever to do with density. It simply depends on the mass of ghg gas (or if you like the number of molecules) above the surface. Heating the air does not change the amount of air present, if the density goes down the volume goes up whch in this case means the atmosphere would get a bit thicker. "
No it doesn't help. You ignore that as the air expands up it also expands to the sides a tiny amount also as the geometry is NOT a tube with parallel sides but a cone.
Comment from: Neville December 20th, 2013 at 7:23 pm says:
"Larry I think you’re being far too technical. Lomborg has exposed this bizarre fraud like no other and with the help of a large team of experts."
We're essentially on the same page about the biofuels issue, but our general approaches are slightly different. Here's what I'm saying to the Warmies: Get real! Probably we'd agree on this one specific point But I'd be a hypocrite if I did not hold Climate Realists and Lukewarmers to the same standard, wouldn't I?
The whole point of articles about the science/politics interface is to influence the undecideds. Preaching to the choir does not cut the mustard, even though it warms the cockles of readers having the same persuasion. And that's Lomborg is doing in this article.
Lomborg has the APPEARANCE of being less than fair dinkum -- or at least of being a hack -- because of the specific points that I have raised. And for his true target audience, discerning fence-sitters, Lomborg is shooting himself in the foot.
If you're so inclined, you can accuse me of being overly technical. Moreover you can tar-and-feather me, and run me out of Skepticville on a rail. But like it or not, I'll always be a science curmudgeon.
The direction of OLR change does not falsify AGW, you need to compare its correlation to other factors for that! 🙂
The system only has four components that determine temp.
1/ Power of energy source (solar plus orbital)
2/ Absorption of power (albedo)
3/ Energy Storage/release
4/Energy loss to space
The observation show:-
1/no significant change to power source.
2/ 5% step decrease in cloud cover in 1990s
3/ increase or no change in ocean heat storage.
4/ increase in energy loss to space.
The increased OLR was directly caused by a 5% decrease in clouds in the 1990s and is responsible for 75% of the observed warming trends. This natural component must be subtracted from the temp trend leaving a residual warming of 0.1deg C over 30 years from CO2 or other factors. This is obviously a falsification of dangerous global warming due to man, not to mention the explanation for the current pause in global warming.
The CAGW theory also requires that the extra energy from CO2 energy ends up in the atmosphere where it is amplified by water vapour positive feedback. If the energy is "hiding in the deep oceans instead this actually falsifies CAGW since it is not atmospherically amplified.