ANOTHER year, and I’ve received another photograph from the Spangled Drongo, a regular commentator at this weblog who visits a waterfront property at Cleveland Point, Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, around this time of year.
Spangled is getting older, and back in the late 1940s and early 1950s he remembers the King Tides used to cover the law by about an inch or so.
This time last year, with the barometer reading normal, Spangled saw the King Tide was about 30cm below the lawn height and sent us a photograph, https://climatelab.com.au/2013/01/king-tide-not-so-high/
This year, according to Spangled, the highest astronomical tides were lower by around 20 cm and 10 cm respectively due to a small surge from the north. The first day of the King Tide, on January 2, Spangled says that the barometer was reading 1012 hPa and then yesterday (January 3) it was reading 1002 hPa.
Of course sea levels vary around a coastline depending not only on the tides, but also melting poles (climate change), land subsidence and vertical land motion (tectonic and isostatic phenomena). So around Britain the deglaciation of Scotland that occurred thousands of years ago means the northern part of that landmass is still adjusting and shows uplift (relative sea-level fall) while southern England shows subsidence (relative sea-level rise).[1]
Along the Australian east coast it is well document in the scientific literature that sea level was higher during the mid-Holocene around 6,000 years ago and have fallen in total about 2 m to more or less the present position over the last few thousand years. This is consistent with global climatic change over this period, in particular an overall trend of global cooling since the early Holocene.
So while the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO may nag on about a few centimeters of sea level rise over perhaps the last hundred years, the overall more significant trend during the present geological epoch, the Holocene, is one of sea level fall. The only real point of contention seems to be whether the fall has been smooth or oscillating over the last few thousand years.[2]
PS. I shall make some comment on the latest claims from the Bureau of Meteorology that 2013 was the hottest year ever in due course after I have had time to look properly at the data. In the meantime, my blog post from March is still very relevant https://climatelab.com.au/2013/03/cooking-books-for-hot-summers/
***
References
1. This is all nicely explained in a paper by Ian Shennan et al. entitled Late Holocene vertical land motion and relative sea-level changes: lessons from the British Isles published in the Journal of Quarternary Science (volume 27, pages 64-70).
2. Lewis et al. published a controversial summary in Terra Nova (volume 20, pages 74-81) entitled Mid-late Holocene sea-level variability in eastern Australia.
Filing this here:
NZCLIMATE TRUTH NEWSLETTER NO 319
OCTOBER 30TH 2013
IPCC SEA LEVEL EXAGGERATION
Chapter 13 of the IPCC 5th WGI Report claims that sea level will rise by
an amount between 0.26 to 0.97 metres by 2100 according to which of their
new scenarios actually happens
Relative Sea Level,the distance between the level of the sea and the level
of neighbouring land is what matters to most of us. The Level of the open
ocean is only of minor importance. This Report tries to mix the two up in
a single chart.
Relative Sea Level is measured by tide gauges which measure the distance
between the level of the sea registered on specialist equipment and a
supposedly constant benchmark location on the neighbouring land. carried
out in over 1000 coastal locations all over the world. The records are
averages, over a day, week, month or years
Both the level of the sea and of the neighbouring land constantly vary
from place to place.and from time to time
The sea changes level constantly, diurnally and seasonally. It is
influenced by winds, storms and hurricanes and also by earthquakes. The
level of the sea may be influenced by breakwaters and harbour works. The
equipment may be damaged or its location altered by storms. Severe storms
may prevent correct measurement and give a false reading which interferes
with claims for “change
Land surfaces may change. The land may subside by weight of buildings, and
removal of minerals and groundwater.The Report illustrates the problem of
measurement near land covered in iceGeological change (Isostasy) may
result from plate movements and earthquakes. Many of these effects cause
an upwards bias to the readings
Long term trends may as much show these changes as any other influence. As
a result they are not a reliable guide to the future.which should be
based on a recent period of reliable measurements.
The recent installation of GPS levelling equipment on m,ay sites has
greatly improved the reliability of the land-based benchmark. It has
resulted in a nearly constant sea level change for many records it is
therefore wrong to place reliance on older readings in order to assess
future behaviour. It should be based on the most recent measurements which
are the least likely to be affected by previous bias.
The records are publicly available at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea
Level (PSMSL) website at at
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/map.html which features a very
convenient map of the world from which all the records can be obtained.
Many records are defective in one way or another. Many have gaps or sudden
changes, Few have a long-term continuous record. Frequently there is
little sign of change during the recent decade. evidence. that currently
there is little or no change in sea level. The following figure from
Chapter 13, FAQ 13.1 Figure 1. illustrates this error.
It shows six tide gauge records compared with the supposed global average..
The actual current records, which are shown (rather small), disagree with
this supposed trend
San Francisco is unchanged since 1990.
Charlottetown is unchanged from 1995 to 2010.
Antofagasta is unchanged from 1980 to 2012
Pago Pago is unchanged since 2000.
Stockholm is actually falling.
Manila is a rogue record.The following website states that the gauge is
subject to subsidence
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global_station.shtml?stnid=660-011
The following records from the Philippines .show no recent rise.
Cebu Port Irene
I have published a study of the Pacific islands which also display no
recent rise at
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/south_pacific.html
Recently there was a Pacific Forum meeting in Kiribati attended by our
Prime Minister which complained that the islands were sinking. And we must
take action
This is a recent tide gauge record from Kiribati
. These figures and also those from Australia continue to show little
change. He same is true for many islands as shown at
http://www.contrepoints.org/2013/10/01/140868-les-oceans-montent-dangereusement-sauf-autour-iles
Future projections for different places from the latest IPCC Report
Chapter 13 are shown in their Figure 13.23 .
Every one of these actual measured sea levels have shown no sign of change
for at least ten years, yet all the projections claim that this settled
behaviour will suddenly change to an upwards level of around half a metre
by the end of the century.
This is based on models which have failed to predict the lack of a global
temperature increase for the past 17 year,.yet it is claimed they are
causing melting of ice, particularly in the Arctic
All the models assume that any temperature rise will be least at the poles
and greatest at the tropics because the water vapour feedback is lower at
the poles..They do not mention Antarctica where the ice is currently
increasing
There are no measurements of temperatures on ice anywhere, on ice caps,
oceans or glaciers. In all cases there are other influences.on their
behaviour. In the Arctic it is the temperature of the ocean and the
behaviour of the ocean oscillations.
The ice in the Arctic is beginning to grow now
The satellite measurements do seem to show a steady increase in sea level,
but it seems to be little known that the instruments are subject to drift
and they have to be calibrated on tide gauge measurements,
This is described in the following web address
http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=DcXZF9vogtkC&pg=PA121&dq=sea+level+rise+satellite+measurements&hl=en&sa=X&ei=c4BoUtXJA82fiAeX0IDoCw&ved=0CDgQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=sea%20level%20rise%20satellite%20measurements&f=false
which can be bolied down to
http://tinyurl.com/ljt4w5m
These satellite measurements have only been going since 1992. There have
been several calibration problems and it is uncleasr to what extent it
incorporates errors from tude gauges
CONCLUSION
.Models based on an assumption of a temperature change that is not
currently happening, and on melting ice which is absent from Antarctica
and which appears to have ceased in the Arctic, are poor guides to
practical sea level changes near a coast. These need to be judged from
tide gauges measuring recent local behaviour with reliable equipment,, .
The IPCC “projections” are thereby grossly exaggerated
Vincent Gray
75 Silverstream Road
Crofton Downs
Wellington 6035
New Zealand
I am asking a very similar question of Luke elsewhere.
What's your solution Luke?
Let's hear it.
And please add WHO or WHAT is currently providing that solution and with WHAT funding sources.