Sophie C. Lewis and David J. Karoly have just had a paper published by the American Meteorological Society.
crabs are real, homogenised data is not
Its starts on page 31 of a special edition, ‘Explaining Extreme Events of 2013: From a Climate Perspective’ that is a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 9, September 2014.
In this peer-reviewed paper I see that the homogenised ACORN-SAT data is labelled “Observations”.
Stupid is as stupid does.
A new study finds more warming would make the oceans more alkaline not more acidic.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/new-paper-debunks-acidification-scare.html
ABC convenes board in search of scientific balance. It looks like a whitewash .....
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/10/abcs-stacked-audit-deck/
The US winter forecast suggests the jet stream will play a dominant part.
'Below average temperatures are favored in parts of the south-central and southeastern United States, while above-average temperatures are most likely in the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and New England, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook, issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.'
Anthony Watts
If this pattern was active in the depths of glaciation, it might explain more accurately the route humans took in conquering the Americas.
Thanks for all that Neville, I'm on a quest to find a long range weather forecaster who consistently gets it right.
Neutral ENSO and Neutral IOD reign at the moment and should tell us something.
Egg the MDB annual average rainfall has increased by 4.88mm/ decade over the last 114 years.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=mdb&season=0112&ave_yr=T
But the period of about 8 years after 2001 was very low but the late 1890s to about 1904 was very low as well. The 1940s drought wasn't good either. The heavier rainfall of the 50s and 70s coincided with the big cool phase of the PDO + more la ninas.
Not sure about this prediction by Kevin Long, but I'll keep an open mind.
'It should also be noted that during the last 34 years, most of the below-average rainfall years have coincided with above-average sea ice years. Going hand-in-hand with the continued sea ice growth, the average MDB rainfall has suffered a progressive decline of about 25%.
'My studies indicate that these declining rainfall trends will continue for another 30 years, driven by sustained reduction in solar radiation levels (i.e. greatly reduced solar winds and sunspots numbers).'
BoM Seasonal Outlook
'The October to December temperature outlooks are for warmer than normal days over most of Australia particularly in the far southeast, and warmer than normal nights with the exception of the northern tropical regions.
'Climate influences include warmer than normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole.'
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Warmer than normal in the south-east, I have my doubts. The east coast low was a shocker, snowing in the Blue Mountains and freezing winds for days.
Admittedly its appearance is unpredictable, but should soften the numbers.